Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 88 | 4% | 3% | −1pp |
| 10–25% | 66 | 18% | 17% | −1pp |
| 25–40% | 63 | 32% | 27% | −5pp |
| 40–60% | 86 | 49% | 35% | −14pp |
| 60–75% | 78 | 68% | 76% | +8pp |
| 75–90% | 142 | 83% | 89% | +6pp |
| 90–100% | 259 | 97% | 100% | +3pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
66% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$807.0K across 782 positions, with $1.6K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? — Yes | 0.5743 | won | 10,206 | $4.3K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.7400 | won | 8,211 | $2.1K |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? — Yes | 0.4906 | won | 58,363 | $29.7K |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? — Yes | 0.8378 | won | 4,970 | $806 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.9899 | won | 74,593 | $756 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9737 | won | 529,166 | $13.9K |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? — Yes | 0.8998 | won | 50,000 | $5.0K |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? — No | 0.4779 | lost | 36,239 | −$17.3K |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.8837 | won | 27,168 | $3.2K |
| Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms? — Yes | 0.3399 | won | 3,230 | $2.1K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.6800 | won | 2,049 | $656 |
| Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? — No | 0.8800 | won | 2,277 | $273 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.5422 | won | 4,109 | $1.9K |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? — No | 0.7550 | won | 2,564 | $628 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? — Yes | 0.0900 | lost | 25,739 | −$2.3K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — Yes | 0.4841 | lost | 181,802 | −$88.0K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.4397 | won | 29,944 | $16.8K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.7399 | won | 787,535 | $204.8K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.7985 | won | 136,498 | $27.5K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.2094 | lost | 787,313 | −$164.9K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.2370 | lost | 875,342 | −$207.5K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — Yes | 0.3072 | lost | 25,787 | −$7.9K |
| UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) — Max Holloway | 0.6807 | won | 348,254 | $111.2K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — Yes | 0.4373 | lost | 499,215 | −$218.3K |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.5596 | won | 4,422 | $1.9K |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? — Yes | 0.7200 | won | 2,175 | $609 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No | 0.7869 | won | 382,139 | $81.4K |
| Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? — Yes | 0.9199 | won | 5,928 | $475 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.2394 | won | 183,751 | $139.8K |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? — Yes | 0.6100 | won | 454 | $177 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.8993 | won | 5,209 | $525 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — Yes | 0.6171 | won | 20,787 | $8.0K |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? — Yes | 0.9893 | won | 80,000 | $853 |
| US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? — Yes | 0.9900 | won | 6,364 | $64 |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.4673 | won | 34,049 | $18.1K |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? — No | 0.6000 | lost | 79,904 | −$47.9K |
| Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? — Yes | 0.6800 | won | 6,924 | $2.2K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.2858 | won | 353,401 | $252.4K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? — Yes | 0.0657 | lost | 573,694 | −$37.7K |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.0885 | lost | 6,949 | −$615 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.4441 | won | 794,448 | $441.6K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.2045 | lost | 1,976,272 | −$404.1K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? — Yes | 0.1687 | lost | 372,469 | −$62.8K |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? — No | 0.6455 | won | 16,021 | $5.7K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.6995 | won | 36,034 | $10.8K |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.4100 | lost | 6,013 | −$2.5K |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.2776 | won | 66,866 | $48.3K |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 7? — Yes | 0.0196 | lost | 13,185 | −$259 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? — Yes | 0.0599 | lost | 9,473 | −$567 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? — No | 0.9400 | won | 49,973 | $3.0K |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — Yes | 0.4986 | won | 43,562 | $21.8K |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? — Yes | 0.3276 | lost | 11,012 | −$3.6K |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? — Yes | 0.2790 | lost | 2,045 | −$571 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? — Yes | 0.3363 | lost | 86,247 | −$29.0K |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? — Yes | 0.5721 | won | 2,903 | $1.2K |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? — No | 0.4802 | won | 24,742 | $12.9K |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? — No | 0.4612 | lost | 108,831 | −$50.2K |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? — Yes | 0.4983 | lost | 29,376 | −$14.6K |
| Will Trump attend his son's wedding? — No | 0.9700 | won | 9,825 | $295 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? — Yes | 0.9300 | won | 12,241 | $857 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →