Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.2792

across 12 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

−15%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

15.9pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

42%

5 of 12 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
40–60%	7	51%	43%	−8pp
60–75%	5	66%	40%	−26pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

0 open positions

Largest position

n/a

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

n/a

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

against $0 of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$81.9K across 12 positions, with $2.0K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Monterrey Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Elise Mertens — Nikola Bartunkova	0.5376	lost	72,452	−$38.9K
Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — James Duckworth	0.4196	lost	19,066	−$8.0K
Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Luis Guto Miguel — Luis Guto Miguel	0.5243	lost	41,427	−$21.7K
Winston-Salem Open: Ignacio Buse vs Benjamin Bonzi — Ignacio Buse	0.6309	won	55	$20
Set Handicap: Bonzi (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) — Buse	0.6801	won	22,057	$7.1K
Ukraine vs. Greece — Ukraine	0.5499	won	1,964	$884
US Open, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Colton Smith — Hugo Gaston	0.5828	won	25,227	$10.5K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Christopher O'Connell — Christopher OConnell	0.6321	lost	1,982	−$1.3K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Nishesh Basavareddy — Nishesh Basavareddy	0.4200	won	17,422	$10.1K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Jurij Rodionov — Jacob Fearnley	0.5558	lost	23,400	−$13.0K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin — Cristian Garin	0.7089	lost	11,285	−$8.0K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Christopher O'Connell — Christopher OConnell	0.6697	lost	29,252	−$19.6K

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →