Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 97 | 3% | 1% | −2pp |
| 10–25% | 44 | 17% | 11% | −5pp |
| 25–40% | 31 | 32% | 35% | +4pp |
| 40–60% | 27 | 50% | 44% | −5pp |
| 60–75% | 15 | 68% | 73% | +5pp |
| 75–90% | 8 | 82% | 75% | −7pp |
| 90–100% | 1 | 93% | 100% | +7pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$37.6K across 223 positions, with $759 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike Cuba next? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 2,000 | −$2 |
| Will the US strike Iran next? — Yes | 0.0066 | lost | 1,675 | −$11 |
| Will the US strike Iraq next? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 1,000 | −$1 |
| Will the US strike another country first? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 1,000 | −$1 |
| Will the US strike Colombia next? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 1,000 | −$1 |
| Will the US strike Mexico next? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 1,000 | −$1 |
| Will the US strike Syria next? — No | 0.0070 | lost | 143 | −$1 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.0900 | lost | 16,094 | −$1.4K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0033 | lost | 150,962 | −$500 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0045 | lost | 222,037 | −$1.0K |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 500,000 | −$1.0K |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET — Up | 0.3831 | lost | 131 | −$50 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET — Up | 0.2000 | won | 25 | $20 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0729 | lost | 189,045 | −$13.8K |
| Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance — Portugal | 0.3400 | lost | 27,371 | −$9.3K |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? — Yes | 0.1868 | won | 54 | $44 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals — Yes | 0.2541 | lost | 39 | −$10 |
| Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 — Over | 0.0090 | lost | 1,111 | −$10 |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals — Yes | 0.0290 | lost | 172 | −$5 |
| Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? — Yes | 0.1300 | lost | 77 | −$10 |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? — Yes | 0.1999 | lost | 24,415 | −$4.9K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 850,000 | −$850 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? — No | 0.0140 | lost | 71,429 | −$1000 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 333,333 | −$1000 |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? — Yes | 0.5000 | won | 14 | $7 |
| Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.0800 | lost | 125 | −$10 |
| Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score — No | 0.2800 | lost | 36 | −$10 |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? — Yes | 0.3400 | lost | 29 | −$10 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? — Yes | 0.0540 | lost | 19 | −$1 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? — Yes | 0.0800 | lost | 25 | −$2 |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) — Khamzat Chimaev | 0.8200 | lost | 4 | −$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET — Down | 0.1677 | lost | 60 | −$10 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? — Yes | 0.2182 | lost | 183 | −$40 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4PM ET — Down | 0.2500 | lost | 20 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET — Down | 0.5500 | lost | 9 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET — Down | 0.2100 | lost | 61 | −$13 |
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET — Down | 0.5327 | lost | 19 | −$10 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET — Down | 0.5900 | lost | 8 | −$5 |
| Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? — Yes | 0.1600 | lost | 6 | −$1 |
| Solana Up or Down - May 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET — Down | 0.5300 | won | 2 | $1 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET — Down | 0.5700 | won | 2 | $1 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET — Down | 0.5486 | won | 36 | $16 |
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET — Up | 0.1905 | lost | 53 | −$10 |
| Pistons vs. Magic — Magic | 0.4100 | lost | 24 | −$10 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET — Up | 0.3691 | lost | 54 | −$20 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET — Up | 0.5100 | won | 20 | $10 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET — Up | 0.3300 | won | 30 | $20 |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? — Yes | 0.0380 | lost | 23 | −$1 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? — Yes | 0.1360 | lost | 64 | −$9 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? — Yes | 0.7000 | lost | 14 | −$10 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.0220 | lost | 455 | −$10 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? — No | 0.0047 | lost | 53,598 | −$251 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0050 | lost | 200 | −$1 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? — Yes | 0.6600 | won | 15 | $5 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? — Yes | 0.0180 | lost | 477 | −$9 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? — Yes | 0.0270 | lost | 159 | −$4 |
| Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-26? — Yes | 0.0150 | lost | 63 | −$1 |
| Will Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? — Yes | 0.1400 | won | 7 | $6 |
| Celtics vs. 76ers — Celtics | 0.7400 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? — Yes | 0.9300 | won | 1 | $0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →