Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.0949

across 542 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+35%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

2.5pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

18%

97 of 542 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	290	2%	2%	−0pp
10–25%	97	17%	12%	−5pp
25–40%	54	31%	35%	+4pp
40–60%	80	50%	55%	+5pp
60–75%	9	67%	78%	+10pp
75–90%	7	82%	86%	+4pp
90–100%	5	95%	80%	−15pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$15.7K

436 open positions

Largest position

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$10.6K

against $15.7K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$3.9K across 542 positions, with $9 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? — No	0.0060	lost	156	−$1
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? — No	0.0200	lost	554	−$11
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? — No	0.0020	lost	19	−$0
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? — No	0.0140	lost	24	−$0
Over $22M committed to the Space public sale? — Yes	0.3159	lost	1,333	−$421
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? — No	0.0773	lost	647	−$50
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? — Yes	0.0600	lost	963	−$58
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? — Yes	0.0310	lost	476	−$15
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale? — Yes	0.3557	won	566	$365
Brevis FDV above $400M one day after launch? — No	0.0800	lost	10	−$1
Brevis FDV above $200M one day after launch? — No	0.0010	lost	10,399	−$10
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? — No	0.0160	lost	7	−$0
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? — No	0.0660	lost	35	−$2
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? — Yes	0.0020	lost	1,765	−$4
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? — Yes	0.0050	lost	1,513	−$8
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? — Yes	0.0180	lost	30	−$1
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? — Yes	0.0140	lost	676	−$9
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes	0.0420	lost	8	−$0
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes	0.0020	lost	65	−$0
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes	0.0120	lost	303	−$4
Will Maryam Rajavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes	0.0010	lost	16,418	−$16
Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes	0.0065	lost	203	−$1
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0030	lost	1,000	−$3
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0217	lost	1,851	−$40
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0181	lost	1,764	−$32
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? — Yes	0.0020	lost	3,056	−$6
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0140	lost	20	−$0
Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? — Yes	0.0630	lost	140	−$9
Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? — Yes	0.0120	lost	195	−$2
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27? — Yes	0.0040	lost	1,001	−$4
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? — Yes	0.0046	lost	1,806	−$8
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? — Yes	0.0108	lost	285	−$3
Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? — Yes	0.0121	lost	168	−$2
Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? — Yes	0.0040	lost	811	−$3
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? — Yes	0.0130	lost	5	−$0
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? — Yes	0.0020	lost	172	−$0
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? — Yes	0.0030	lost	2,797	−$8
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale? — No	0.0170	lost	396	−$7
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — Yes	0.0030	lost	15	−$0
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — No	0.0200	lost	10	−$0
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — Yes	0.0070	lost	384	−$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET — Down	0.2900	lost	3	−$1
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? — Yes	0.0210	lost	541	−$11
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? — Yes	0.8600	won	2	$0
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? — Yes	0.5600	lost	3	−$2
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? — Yes	0.0339	lost	105	−$4
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? — No	0.0040	lost	5,214	−$21
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — Yes	0.0190	lost	20	−$0
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? — Yes	0.0130	lost	700	−$9
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? — Yes	0.0090	lost	786	−$7
Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? — Yes	0.0290	lost	720	−$21
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0020	lost	1,057	−$2
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 13-19? — Yes	0.0620	lost	3,013	−$187
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0030	lost	3,032	−$9
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0030	lost	1,917	−$6
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? — Yes	0.0493	lost	310	−$15
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0010	lost	59,430	−$59
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0200	lost	1,353	−$27
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0143	lost	3,257	−$46
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0210	lost	2,984	−$63

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →