Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 8 | 3% | 0% | −3pp |
| 10–25% | 8 | 18% | 0% | −18pp |
| 25–40% | 25 | 34% | 28% | −6pp |
| 40–60% | 77 | 51% | 52% | +1pp |
| 60–75% | 73 | 67% | 71% | +4pp |
| 75–90% | 88 | 82% | 84% | +2pp |
| 90–100% | 207 | 97% | 99% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $40.7K across 486 positions, with $435 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? — Yes | 0.6018 | won | 1,449 | $577 |
| Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — Arthur Fery | 0.8443 | won | 14,049 | $2.2K |
| Kingston 2: Andrew Fenty vs Luis Guto Miguel — Luis Guto Miguel | 0.9300 | won | 12,042 | $843 |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Jack Pinnington Jones — Jack Pinnington Jones | 0.8900 | lost | 164 | −$146 |
| Winston-Salem Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan — Fabian Marozsan | 0.9200 | won | 7,628 | $610 |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Federico Coria — Clement Chidekh | 0.9196 | won | 13,447 | $1.1K |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Tom Gentzsch — Tom Gentzsch | 0.9200 | won | 35 | $3 |
| Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.9704 | won | 141 | $4 |
| Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe — Arthur Fils | 0.5679 | won | 4,650 | $2.0K |
| Cancun: Sebastian Baez vs Lloyd Harris — Sebastian Baez | 0.8625 | won | 16,654 | $2.3K |
| Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoe — Frances Tiafoe | 0.7700 | won | 3,035 | $698 |
| Cancun: Sebastian Baez vs Coleman Wong — Sebastian Baez | 0.5900 | won | 7,926 | $3.2K |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Arthur Fils — Arthur Fils | 0.7600 | won | 11,460 | $2.8K |
| Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex de Minaur — Arthur Fils | 0.8700 | won | 10,151 | $1.3K |
| Cincinnati Open: Peyton Stearns vs Clara Tauson — Peyton Stearns | 0.8500 | lost | 7,640 | −$6.5K |
| Cincinnati Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Jakub Mensik — Jakub Mensik | 0.7704 | won | 1,293 | $297 |
| Brownsburg: Andres Andrade vs Jack Pinnington Jones — Jack Pinnington Jones | 0.6756 | won | 14,708 | $4.8K |
| National Bank Open: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina — Iga Swiatek | 0.9431 | won | 14,169 | $807 |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima — Rafael Jodar | 0.5800 | lost | 5,107 | −$3.0K |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Nadia Podoroska vs Ella Seidel — Ella Seidel | 0.6119 | lost | 19,320 | −$11.8K |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Learner Tien | 0.6900 | won | 6,000 | $1.9K |
| National Bank Open: Alina Korneeva vs Coco Gauff — Coco Gauff | 0.9941 | won | 95 | $1 |
| National Bank Open: Arthur Fils vs Cameron Norrie — Arthur Fils | 0.7000 | won | 10,779 | $3.2K |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Rafael Jodar — Rafael Jodar | 0.9950 | won | 15 | $0 |
| National Bank Open: Caty McNally vs Alexandra Eala — Caty McNally | 0.3100 | lost | 10,352 | −$3.2K |
| National Bank Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Jakub Mensik — Jakub Mensik | 0.9573 | won | 2,975 | $127 |
| National Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Gabriel Diallo — Luciano Darderi | 0.7700 | won | 565 | $130 |
| Canadian Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Hamad Medjedovic — Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0.5800 | won | 9,803 | $4.1K |
| Los Cabos Open: Coleman Wong vs Arthur Gea — Arthur Gea | 0.6300 | won | 8,151 | $3.0K |
| The Memphis Classic: Tatjana Maria vs Renata Zarazua — Renata Zarazua | 0.4495 | won | 3,699 | $2.0K |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Lucas Poullain — Dan Added | 0.8895 | won | 6,951 | $768 |
| Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs Aleksandar Kovacevic — Cameron Norrie | 0.9980 | won | 130 | $0 |
| The Memphis Classic: Renata Zarazua vs McCartney Kessler — McCartney Kessler | 0.6322 | lost | 5,403 | −$3.4K |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx — Luca Van Assche | 0.8600 | won | 5,899 | $826 |
| Will Iran Play in the World Cup? — Yes | 0.7300 | won | 381 | $103 |
| Winnipeg: Charles Broom vs Toby Samuel — Toby Samuel | 0.8400 | won | 9,577 | $1.5K |
| Estoril Open: Tiago Torres vs Hugo Gaston — Hugo Gaston | 0.8248 | won | 16,390 | $2.9K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.7540 | won | 738 | $181 |
| Winnipeg: Charles Broom vs Zhizhen Zhang — Zhizhen Zhang | 0.9100 | lost | 17,183 | −$15.6K |
| Hamburg European Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva — Tamara Korpatsch | 0.8600 | won | 9,381 | $1.3K |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Orlando Luz — Nuno Borges | 0.9395 | won | 20,537 | $1.2K |
| Bloomfield Hills: Blaise Bicknell vs Adam Walton — Adam Walton | 0.9400 | won | 8,068 | $484 |
| Cordenons: Max Alcala Gurri vs Gonzalo Villanueva — Max Alcala Gurri | 0.9800 | won | 4,261 | $85 |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Andrea Pellegrino vs Joao Dinis Silva — Andrea Pellegrino | 0.9990 | won | 14 | $0 |
| Pozoblanco: Akira Santillan vs Izan Almazan Valiente — Akira Santillan | 0.9200 | won | 2,331 | $186 |
| Croatia Open: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Matteo Arnaldi — Matteo Arnaldi | 0.9333 | won | 9,678 | $646 |
| Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9990 | won | 19,000 | $19 |
| Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9990 | won | 2,056 | $2 |
| Lincoln: J.J. Wolf vs Andrew Fenty — J.J. Wolf | 0.6326 | won | 13,979 | $5.1K |
| Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova — Linda Noskova | 0.6226 | won | 197 | $74 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic — Jannik Sinner | 0.8070 | won | 15,381 | $3.0K |
| Will Roger Federer play at Wimbledon? — No | 0.9929 | won | 602 | $4 |
| Wimbledon 2026: Any Player to Violate Dress Code? — Yes | 0.9479 | won | 102 | $5 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff — Jan-Lennard Struff | 0.9200 | won | 4,001 | $320 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Felix Auger-Aliassime | 0.7800 | won | 408 | $90 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Jannik Sinner | 0.9614 | won | 11,712 | $453 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Flavio Cobolli — Karen Khachanov | 0.4916 | lost | 6,539 | −$3.2K |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Jenson Brooksby — Jannik Sinner | 0.9549 | won | 6,736 | $304 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alex Molcan — Jiri Lehecka | 0.8102 | won | 22,591 | $4.3K |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Rafael Jodar | 0.7103 | won | 21,184 | $6.1K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →