04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.0308
across 135 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+88%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
3.4pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
51%
69 of 135 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 61 | 1% | 2% | +1pp |
| 25–40% | 2 | 30% | 50% | +20pp |
| 40–60% | 2 | 54% | 0% | −54pp |
| 60–75% | 3 | 69% | 33% | −36pp |
| 75–90% | 7 | 84% | 100% | +16pp |
| 90–100% | 60 | 98% | 98% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$33.2K
10 open positions
Largest position
36%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
2
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
$716
against $33.2K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$24.7K across 135 positions, with $7 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9850 | won | 17,702 | $265 |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9930 | won | 13,000 | $91 |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9890 | won | 10,000 | $110 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9646 | won | 4,956 | $175 |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9974 | won | 10,141 | $27 |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9655 | won | 8,000 | $276 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0050 | lost | 384 | −$2 |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? — Yes | 0.9920 | won | 1,030 | $8 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? — Yes | 0.0240 | lost | 45 | −$1 |
| Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 19,320 | −$58 |
| Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 101,829 | −$204 |
| Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 4,037 | −$12 |
| Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 189,527 | −$569 |
| Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 208,022 | −$208 |
| Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 58,395 | −$117 |
| Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 24,424 | −$49 |
| Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 500 | $1 |
| Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? — No | 0.7300 | won | 100 | $27 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0070 | lost | 60,409 | −$423 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? — Yes | 0.0050 | lost | 1,415 | −$7 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 319 | −$1 |
| Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? — Yes | 0.0070 | lost | 640,472 | −$4.5K |
| Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? — Yes | 0.0050 | lost | 518,768 | −$2.6K |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? — Yes | 0.0060 | lost | 80,211 | −$481 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? — No | 0.9980 | won | 3,000 | $6 |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025? — Yes | 0.0033 | lost | 284,391 | −$926 |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 11,507 | −$35 |
| Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 2025? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 197,769 | −$396 |
| Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 13,498 | −$40 |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? — Yes | 0.0011 | lost | 29,444 | −$32 |
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 141,977 | −$284 |
| Will Israel strike 4 countries in October 2025? — No | 0.9500 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Israel strike 0 countries in October 2025? — No | 0.9770 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Israel strike 1 country in October 2025? — No | 0.9000 | lost | 5 | −$5 |
| Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? — No | 0.9990 | won | 15 | $0 |
| Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? — No | 0.9990 | won | 15 | $0 |
| Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? — No | 0.9990 | won | 15 | $0 |
| Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? — No | 0.9990 | won | 15 | $0 |
| Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? — No | 0.9990 | won | 15 | $0 |
| Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? — No | 0.9990 | won | 10 | $0 |
| Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? — No | 0.0070 | lost | 5,630 | −$40 |
| Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? — No | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.0089 | lost | 349,682 | −$3.1K |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.0091 | lost | 72,788 | −$664 |
| Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.0060 | lost | 362,624 | −$2.2K |
| Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.0100 | lost | 49,671 | −$497 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? — Yes | 0.0270 | won | 17 | $17 |
| Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? — Yes | 0.0040 | lost | 115,265 | −$461 |
| Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? — Yes | 0.0050 | lost | 231,129 | −$1.2K |
| Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? — Yes | 0.0037 | lost | 359,687 | −$1.3K |
| Will Real Sociedad win La Liga? — Yes | 0.0040 | lost | 13,111 | −$52 |
| Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? — Yes | 0.0080 | lost | 91,055 | −$728 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $440b on February 28? — No | 0.9790 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $420b on February 28? — No | 0.5333 | lost | 15 | −$8 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $435 - 440b on February 28? — No | 0.9890 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430 - 435b on February 28? — No | 0.9830 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $425 - 430b on February 28? — No | 0.9810 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $420b on February 28? — Yes | 0.8300 | won | 10 | $2 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430 - 435b on February 28? — Yes | 0.0250 | lost | 40 | −$1 |
| Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? — Yes | 0.0050 | lost | 59,113 | −$296 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →