Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 40 | 5% | 3% | −3pp |
| 10–25% | 61 | 17% | 18% | +1pp |
| 25–40% | 69 | 33% | 26% | −7pp |
| 40–60% | 88 | 51% | 49% | −2pp |
| 60–75% | 78 | 67% | 65% | −1pp |
| 75–90% | 89 | 83% | 89% | +6pp |
| 90–100% | 156 | 97% | 97% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
60% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $155.0K across 581 positions, with $2.9K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.8200 | won | 95 | $17 |
| Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? — Yes | 0.9300 | won | 229 | $16 |
| Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch? — No | 0.4900 | won | 115 | $59 |
| Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch? — No | 0.0700 | lost | 14,716 | −$1.0K |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? — Yes | 0.3592 | won | 48,207 | $30.9K |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? — Yes | 0.8100 | won | 5,020 | $954 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9567 | won | 163,764 | $7.1K |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.9436 | won | 23,783 | $1.3K |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.8647 | won | 125,426 | $17.0K |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.2035 | lost | 35,598 | −$7.2K |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.1500 | lost | 30,429 | −$4.6K |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.8280 | won | 3,043 | $523 |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? — Yes | 0.2503 | lost | 37,950 | −$9.5K |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0453 | lost | 1,334 | −$60 |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? — Yes | 0.0100 | lost | 6,996 | −$70 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? — Yes | 0.0287 | lost | 9,941 | −$286 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.7453 | won | 88,996 | $22.7K |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? — No | 0.9800 | won | 6,126 | $123 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.9970 | won | 200,000 | $600 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.9211 | lost | 14,634 | −$13.5K |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.1361 | won | 20,452 | $17.7K |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.1048 | won | 123,639 | $110.7K |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No | 0.7198 | won | 15,004 | $4.2K |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.6100 | won | 92,184 | $36.0K |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.5272 | won | 35 | $17 |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? — No | 0.9250 | won | 1,963 | $147 |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? — Yes | 0.9850 | won | 1,093 | $16 |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) — Sean Strickland | 0.1900 | won | 5,000 | $4.1K |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? — Yes | 0.9695 | won | 13,534 | $413 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? — No | 0.4600 | lost | 19,346 | −$8.9K |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? — No | 0.8700 | won | 8,718 | $1.1K |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.0845 | lost | 4,668 | −$394 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9600 | won | 237,330 | $9.5K |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — Yes | 0.2391 | won | 12,000 | $9.1K |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — No | 0.9820 | lost | 2,427 | −$2.4K |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? — No | 0.9799 | won | 53,357 | $1.1K |
| Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? — Yes | 0.6700 | lost | 120 | −$80 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? — No | 0.9199 | won | 2,300 | $184 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? — Yes | 0.9830 | won | 1,135 | $19 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? — No | 0.9714 | won | 39,948 | $1.1K |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? — No | 0.0680 | lost | 2,705 | −$184 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.1415 | lost | 40,483 | −$5.7K |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9940 | won | 5,000 | $30 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9853 | won | 351,526 | $5.2K |
| Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? — Yes | 0.4700 | lost | 30 | −$14 |
| UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) — Max Holloway | 0.6700 | lost | 6,000 | −$4.0K |
| Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? — Yes | 0.8900 | won | 389 | $43 |
| 76ers vs. Celtics — Celtics | 0.9198 | won | 22 | $2 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? — No | 0.8900 | won | 5,786 | $636 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? — No | 0.1042 | lost | 24,777 | −$2.6K |
| Will the State of the Union be 100 minutes or longer? — Yes | 0.7100 | won | 3,766 | $1.1K |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots — Seahawks | 0.6800 | won | 4,000 | $1.3K |
| Big Game: Coin Toss — Heads | 0.5010 | won | 10,000 | $5.0K |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? — No | 0.9870 | won | 5,567 | $72 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? — No | 0.4098 | lost | 8,687 | −$3.6K |
| US government shutdown Saturday? — Yes | 0.7689 | won | 12,533 | $2.9K |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? — No | 0.9580 | won | 1,847 | $78 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? — No | 0.8100 | won | 22,565 | $4.3K |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? — Yes | 0.1900 | lost | 5,777 | −$1.1K |
| Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? — Yes | 0.6594 | won | 2,537 | $864 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →