Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 10 | 1% | 0% | −1pp |
| 10–25% | 9 | 17% | 0% | −17pp |
| 25–40% | 4 | 30% | 25% | −5pp |
| 40–60% | 3 | 50% | 100% | +50pp |
| 60–75% | 1 | 65% | 0% | −65pp |
| 75–90% | 9 | 86% | 100% | +14pp |
| 90–100% | 136 | 98% | 100% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $1.6K across 172 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? — No | 0.9950 | won | 4,000 | $20 |
| Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? — No | 0.9990 | won | 259 | $0 |
| Infinex FDV above $2B one day after launch? — No | 0.9990 | won | 10,000 | $10 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? — No | 0.9895 | won | 4,508 | $47 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? — No | 0.9990 | won | 3,128 | $3 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? — No | 0.9990 | won | 4,148 | $4 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? — No | 0.9890 | won | 316 | $3 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? — No | 0.9940 | won | 3,455 | $21 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 19? — No | 0.9990 | won | 3,902 | $4 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? — No | 0.9990 | won | 5,000 | $5 |
| Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on March 7? — No | 0.9990 | won | 4,756 | $5 |
| Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? — No | 0.9980 | won | 4,141 | $8 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? — No | 0.9980 | won | 3,456 | $7 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? — No | 0.9970 | won | 3,368 | $10 |
| Will Solana reach $160 in February? — No | 0.9880 | won | 2,250 | $27 |
| Will Solana reach $170 in February? — No | 0.9830 | won | 6,376 | $108 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 17? — No | 0.9990 | won | 2,705 | $3 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 17? — No | 0.9982 | won | 3,368 | $6 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 17? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 February 2-8? — No | 0.9970 | won | 206 | $1 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? — No | 0.9970 | won | 5,000 | $15 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? — No | 0.8770 | won | 726 | $89 |
| Will Berachain's FDV be $15b or more 1 day after launch? — No | 0.9500 | won | 3,000 | $150 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? — No | 0.9960 | won | 4,000 | $16 |
| Will Solana reach $240 in November? — No | 0.9900 | won | 188 | $2 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 7? — No | 0.9940 | won | 3,387 | $20 |
| Ethereum all time high by October 31? — No | 0.9850 | won | 5,000 | $75 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025? — No | 0.9970 | won | 20 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1,695 | $2 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? — No | 0.9880 | won | 1,298 | $16 |
| Will Solana reach $350 in September? — No | 0.9820 | won | 10 | $0 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9100 | won | 1,166 | $105 |
| Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? — No | 0.9900 | won | 100 | $1 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? — No | 0.9940 | won | 2,500 | $15 |
| Will Solana reach $340 in August? — No | 0.9890 | won | 181 | $2 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? — No | 0.9700 | won | 1,000 | $30 |
| Ethereum above $3800 on August 11? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 24 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? — No | 0.9911 | won | 1,000 | $9 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? — No | 0.9880 | won | 206 | $2 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? — No | 0.9930 | won | 530 | $4 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? — No | 0.9850 | won | 1,500 | $23 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? — No | 0.9340 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? — No | 0.9850 | won | 1,555 | $23 |
| Will Ethereum close above $2800 on July 31? — Yes | 0.9910 | won | 605 | $5 |
| Will Ethereum close above $2400 on July 31? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 84 | $0 |
| Will Sundowns FC win the FIFA Club World Cup? — No | 0.9970 | won | 10 | $0 |
| Wimbledon: Norrie vs. Alcaraz — Alcaraz | 0.9400 | won | 25 | $2 |
| Wimbledon: Muller vs. Djokovic — Djokovic | 0.9980 | won | 500 | $1 |
| Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? — No | 0.9690 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? — No | 0.9688 | won | 310 | $10 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? — No | 0.9823 | won | 2,151 | $38 |
| Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? — No | 0.9960 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Elon no longer world's richest before July? — No | 0.9980 | won | 10 | $0 |
| Jumper airdrop in Q2 2025? — No | 0.9990 | won | 10 | $0 |
| Rabby airdrop in Q2 2025? — No | 0.9970 | won | 10 | $0 |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? — No | 0.9942 | won | 3,720 | $22 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? — No | 0.8884 | won | 1,120 | $125 |
| Solana all time high by June 30? — No | 0.9850 | won | 777 | $12 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? — No | 0.9830 | won | 914 | $16 |
| Base airdrop in Q2 2025? — No | 0.9710 | won | 5 | $0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →