Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 3% | 0% | −3pp |
| 10–25% | 2 | 25% | 0% | −25pp |
| 25–40% | 2 | 29% | 50% | +21pp |
| 60–75% | 1 | 61% | 100% | +39pp |
| 75–90% | 2 | 87% | 100% | +13pp |
| 90–100% | 39 | 98% | 100% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
57% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $73.4K across 47 positions, with $602 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? — No | 0.0300 | lost | 100 | −$3 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9870 | won | 67,632 | $879 |
| Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? — No | 0.9820 | won | 108 | $2 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? — No | 0.2483 | lost | 11,557 | −$2.9K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.2441 | lost | 68,212 | −$16.7K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.2618 | lost | 46,420 | −$12.2K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9920 | won | 10,530 | $84 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.8469 | won | 122,891 | $18.8K |
| Will no one dissent the July Fed decision? — No | 0.6141 | won | 378 | $146 |
| Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17? — Yes | 0.9340 | won | 47 | $3 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? — No | 0.9680 | won | 336 | $11 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? — No | 0.9620 | won | 1,026 | $39 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? — No | 0.9950 | won | 20 | $0 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? — No | 0.9800 | won | 6 | $0 |
| Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? — No | 0.9900 | won | 8 | $0 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.9910 | won | 320 | $3 |
| Will Trump attend his son's wedding? — No | 0.9750 | won | 2,435 | $61 |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? — No | 0.9840 | won | 1,505 | $24 |
| Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? — No | 0.9927 | won | 62,618 | $457 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 56,225 | $56 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? — No | 0.9990 | won | 76,324 | $76 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 89,648 | $359 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9609 | won | 254,852 | $10.0K |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9707 | won | 35,000 | $1.0K |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9900 | won | 258,607 | $2.6K |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9690 | won | 242,585 | $7.5K |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9851 | won | 94,980 | $1.4K |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9068 | won | 223,506 | $20.8K |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9200 | won | 80,085 | $6.4K |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9648 | won | 87,000 | $3.1K |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? — No | 0.9840 | won | 24,480 | $392 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? — Yes | 0.9950 | won | 101,490 | $507 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9700 | won | 189,476 | $5.7K |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? — No | 0.9649 | won | 188,348 | $6.6K |
| No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9111 | won | 105,082 | $9.3K |
| TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 76,925 | $308 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9854 | won | 37,871 | $554 |
| Will Biden finish his term? — Yes | 0.9676 | won | 76,618 | $2.5K |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? — Yes | 0.9510 | won | 3,799 | $186 |
| Will Biden resign before the election? — No | 0.9860 | won | 55,548 | $778 |
| VP debate before election? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 66,179 | $66 |
| Israel military action against Iraq before November? — Yes | 0.9931 | won | 86,790 | $603 |
| Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate? — No | 0.9925 | won | 56,329 | $421 |
| Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 94,458 | $378 |
| Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? — No | 0.3100 | won | 364 | $251 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? — Yes | 0.9708 | won | 91,581 | $2.7K |
| Will Kamala announce VP pick on Monday? — No | 0.8910 | won | 144 | $16 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →