Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1666

across 32 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+22%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

8.4pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

31%

10 of 32 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	1	9%	0%	−9pp
10–25%	12	19%	8%	−10pp
25–40%	9	32%	33%	+2pp
40–60%	5	49%	40%	−9pp
60–75%	4	61%	75%	+14pp
75–90%	1	78%	100%	+22pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$147

1 open position

Largest position

100%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

against $147 of open value

100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$72 across 32 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? — No	0.1221	lost	57	−$7
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-08-24? — No	0.6100	lost	199	−$122
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22? — No	0.3200	lost	802	−$257
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage — Team Nemesis	0.6000	won	250	$100
Will AEK win on 2026-04-16? — Yes	0.4800	won	237	$123
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-04? — Yes	0.3800	lost	368	−$140
Will Lille OSC vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw? — Yes	0.2800	lost	368	−$103
Will Norwich City FC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw? — Yes	0.2610	won	343	$253
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-04-03? — Yes	0.5000	lost	343	−$171
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? — Yes	0.7800	won	1,128	$248
Will OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? — Yes	0.1900	lost	96	−$18
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? — Yes	0.2000	lost	187	−$37
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-19? — Yes	0.4400	lost	192	−$84
Will FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? — Yes	0.1600	lost	191	−$31
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? — Yes	0.6100	won	330	$129
Will Elche CF win on 2026-03-14? — Yes	0.0900	lost	123	−$11
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF end in a draw? — Yes	0.1500	lost	124	−$19
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-14? — Yes	0.1000	lost	456	−$46
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-14? — Yes	0.6190	won	190	$72
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-13? — Yes	0.4400	won	39	$22
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw? — Yes	0.2600	won	193	$143
Will CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? — Yes	0.2300	lost	192	−$44
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-07? — Yes	0.3800	won	227	$141
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-03-07? — Yes	0.3778	lost	227	−$86
Will Juventus FC vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? — Yes	0.1483	lost	191	−$28
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? — Yes	0.2448	won	425	$321
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-04? — Yes	0.5818	lost	425	−$247
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-04? — Yes	0.3400	lost	5	−$2
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Stade de Reims end in a draw? — Yes	0.2300	lost	178	−$41
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-03-02? — Yes	0.2300	lost	192	−$44
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw? — Yes	0.2600	lost	193	−$50
Will Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes end in a draw? — Yes	0.2200	lost	164	−$36

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →