Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 2 | 6% | 0% | −6pp |
| 10–25% | 7 | 17% | 14% | −3pp |
| 25–40% | 8 | 34% | 25% | −9pp |
| 40–60% | 23 | 53% | 43% | −9pp |
| 60–75% | 43 | 67% | 65% | −2pp |
| 75–90% | 33 | 83% | 91% | +8pp |
| 90–100% | 45 | 97% | 87% | −10pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
87% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$738 across 161 positions, with $1 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? — Yes | 0.9300 | won | 5 | $0 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.7800 | won | 10 | $2 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9940 | won | 2,000 | $12 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0530 | lost | 190 | −$10 |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance — France | 0.6000 | lost | 17 | −$10 |
| Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.8400 | won | 100 | $16 |
| Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.3700 | won | 30 | $19 |
| Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.8900 | won | 100 | $11 |
| Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.8400 | won | 10 | $2 |
| Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.8900 | won | 50 | $5 |
| Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance — Austria | 0.1200 | lost | 90 | −$11 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? — Yes | 0.6500 | won | 2 | $1 |
| Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.7900 | won | 10 | $2 |
| Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.8800 | won | 20 | $2 |
| Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9300 | won | 11 | $1 |
| Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.8100 | won | 30 | $6 |
| Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.8700 | won | 30 | $4 |
| Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.7000 | lost | 30 | −$21 |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? — Yes | 0.5800 | won | 17 | $7 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9950 | won | 1,000 | $5 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? — Yes | 0.7000 | won | 10 | $3 |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9873 | won | 3,000 | $38 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Yes | 0.2800 | lost | 1,000 | −$280 |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Yes | 0.2200 | lost | 1,000 | −$220 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Yes | 0.1700 | lost | 1,000 | −$170 |
| Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9300 | won | 10 | $1 |
| Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? — Yes | 0.1700 | lost | 50 | −$8 |
| Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30? — No | 0.9600 | won | 100 | $4 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9950 | won | 2,000 | $10 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? — No | 0.6100 | lost | 10 | −$6 |
| Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-25? — No | 0.1100 | won | 95 | $84 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? — No | 0.6300 | won | 10 | $4 |
| Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-04? — No | 0.5200 | won | 20 | $10 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? — No | 0.9930 | won | 100 | $1 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? — Yes | 0.9700 | won | 10 | $0 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9930 | won | 100 | $1 |
| Will Lindsey Vonn record the most gold medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics? — No | 0.9969 | won | 1,886 | $6 |
| Will Austria record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? — Yes | 0.9979 | won | 786 | $2 |
| Will Austria record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? — Yes | 0.9969 | won | 1,910 | $6 |
| Winter Games 2026: Lindsey Vonn to medal? — Yes | 0.4000 | lost | 100 | −$40 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9930 | won | 100 | $1 |
| Will Tim Walz drop out by January 6? — Yes | 0.9952 | won | 80 | $0 |
| Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship? — Yes | 0.6300 | won | 2 | $1 |
| Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31? — No | 0.9940 | won | 10 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? — No | 0.9980 | won | 1,904 | $4 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? — Yes | 0.9910 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will "Tequila" be said during the next episode of the All-In podcast? — No | 0.9600 | lost | 32 | −$31 |
| Will "Interest Rate" be said during the next episode of the All-In podcast? — No | 0.9500 | won | 10 | $1 |
| Will "Idiot" or "Dumb" be said during the next episode of the All-In podcast? — Yes | 0.9832 | lost | 212 | −$208 |
| Will "Biden" or "Kamala" be said during the next episode of the All-In podcast? — Yes | 0.9831 | won | 207 | $3 |
| Will "Nuclear" be said during the next episode of the All-In podcast? — No | 0.9648 | won | 84 | $3 |
| Will "Crypto" be said during the next episode of the All-In podcast? — Yes | 0.9810 | won | 207 | $4 |
| Lions vs. Vikings — Lions | 0.7200 | lost | 3 | −$2 |
| 49ers vs. Colts — 49ers | 0.6800 | won | 3 | $1 |
| Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2025-12-21? — No | 0.9600 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21? — Yes | 0.5300 | won | 4 | $2 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-21? — Yes | 0.8600 | won | 5 | $1 |
| Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-20? — No | 0.5600 | won | 4 | $2 |
| Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-12-19? — No | 0.8600 | won | 2 | $0 |
| Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2025-12-14? — No | 0.6800 | won | 7 | $2 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →