Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.2076

across 877 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+11%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

2.1pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

37%

323 of 877 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	34	5%	0%	−5pp
10–25%	109	18%	16%	−2pp
25–40%	277	34%	29%	−5pp
40–60%	417	48%	47%	−0pp
60–75%	32	64%	63%	−2pp
75–90%	5	84%	80%	−4pp
90–100%	3	95%	100%	+5pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

0 open positions

Largest position

n/a

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

n/a

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

against $0 of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$268.0K across 877 positions, with $53.8K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Monterrey Open: Diane Parry vs Ann Li — Diane Parry	0.4143	won	13,797	$8.1K
Winston-Salem Open: Ignacio Buse vs Benjamin Bonzi — Benjamin Bonzi	0.2600	lost	7,185	−$1.9K
Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — Arthur Fery	0.5900	won	10,000	$4.1K
Winston-Salem Open: Ignacio Buse vs Benjamin Bonzi — Ignacio Buse	0.4502	won	40,471	$22.2K
Augsburg: Cezar Cretu vs Sandro Kopp — Cezar Cretu	0.4433	won	23,353	$13.0K
Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs Oliver Tarvet — Charles Broom	0.4258	won	2,665	$1.5K
Augsburg: Benito Sanchez Martinez vs Facundo Mena — Benito Sanchez Martinez	0.5953	lost	2,436	−$1.5K
Augsburg: Benito Sanchez Martinez vs Facundo Mena — Facundo Mena	0.4180	won	25,784	$15.0K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Federico Cina — Yunchaokete Bu	0.1000	lost	10,000	−$1.0K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Colton Smith — Hugo Gaston	0.2600	won	9,184	$6.8K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Federico Cina — Federico Cina	0.4295	won	12,330	$7.0K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Tristan Schoolkate — Tristan Schoolkate	0.5000	won	12,000	$6.0K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald — Mackenzie McDonald	0.1091	lost	18,072	−$2.0K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Elvina Kalieva vs Vendula Valdmannova — Vendula Valdmannova	0.5300	lost	193	−$102
US Open, Qualification WTA: Tamara Zidansek vs Bianca Andreescu — Bianca Andreescu	0.2549	lost	9,708	−$2.5K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Tamara Zidansek vs Bianca Andreescu — Tamara Zidansek	0.3566	won	15,148	$9.7K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken — Vilius Gaubas	0.2161	lost	28,823	−$6.2K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken — Harry Wendelken	0.3913	won	32,118	$19.5K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald — Dalibor Svrcina	0.4426	won	23,020	$12.8K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Christopher O'Connell — Christopher OConnell	0.5537	lost	1,139	−$631
US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Nishesh Basavareddy — Arthur Gea	0.4300	lost	14,000	−$6.0K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Jurij Rodionov — Jacob Fearnley	0.5478	lost	11,491	−$6.3K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Francesco Passaro — Shintaro Mochizuki	0.5600	lost	12,000	−$6.7K
Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse — Juan Manuel Cerundolo	0.1785	lost	13,000	−$2.3K
Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse — Ignacio Buse	0.4387	won	52,940	$29.7K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin — Cristian Garin	0.3400	lost	30,000	−$10.2K
Augsburg: Cezar Cretu vs Marvin Moeller — Cezar Cretu	0.4101	won	4,704	$2.8K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Aziz Dougaz vs Andrea Guerrieri — Aziz Dougaz	0.5200	lost	2,721	−$1.4K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Julieta Pareja vs Lucrezia Stefanini — Lucrezia Stefanini	0.4500	won	6,269	$3.4K
Augsburg: Sandro Kopp vs Martin Krumich — Martin Krumich	0.3541	lost	17,605	−$6.2K
Roehampton 2: Inaki Montes vs George Loffhagen — Inaki Montes	0.4259	lost	3,272	−$1.4K
Augsburg: Daniel Masur vs Facundo Mena — Daniel Masur	0.4200	lost	907	−$381
Augsburg: Benito Sanchez Martinez vs Hynek Barton — Hynek Barton	0.4019	lost	12,000	−$4.8K
Philadelphia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Capucine Jauffret — Capucine Jauffret	0.4653	lost	3,007	−$1.4K
Philadelphia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Capucine Jauffret — Oksana Selekhmeteva	0.4271	won	17,210	$9.9K
Monterrey Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Darja Vidmanova — Cristina Bucsa	0.3787	lost	25,445	−$9.6K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Lucie Havlickova — Lucie Havlickova	0.4000	won	1,820	$1.1K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Christopher O'Connell — Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	0.3579	lost	20,000	−$7.2K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Daniil Glinka — Daniil Glinka	0.4000	lost	20,000	−$8.0K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Kei Nishikori vs Michael Antonius — Kei Nishikori	0.6100	won	148	$58
US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh — Clement Chidekh	0.4187	lost	750	−$314
US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Tom Gentzsch — Tom Gentzsch	0.5200	lost	13,210	−$6.9K
Winston-Salem Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ignacio Buse — Ignacio Buse	0.5597	won	12,358	$5.4K
Winston-Salem Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Luciano Darderi — Luciano Darderi	0.4314	lost	14,088	−$6.1K
Winston-Salem Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Benjamin Bonzi — Rinky Hijikata	0.5300	lost	14,000	−$7.4K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Aziz Dougaz — Kyrian Jacquet	0.3100	lost	10,000	−$3.1K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Mai Hontama vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia — Andrea Lazaro Garcia	0.3400	won	15,000	$9.9K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Polina Iatcenko — Lucia Bronzetti	0.4066	lost	15,000	−$6.1K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee — Jordan Lee	0.3607	lost	5,808	−$2.1K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Aziz Dougaz — Aziz Dougaz	0.4900	won	866	$442
US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova — Tatiana Prozorova	0.4000	lost	17,000	−$6.8K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Pedro Martinez vs Daniil Glinka — Pedro Martinez	0.4600	lost	15,000	−$6.9K
Winston-Salem Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Luciano Darderi — Luciano Darderi	0.4456	won	6,366	$3.5K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Laura Samson vs Tamara Zidansek — Laura Samson	0.1000	lost	15,000	−$1.5K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Laura Samson vs Tamara Zidansek — Tamara Zidansek	0.5200	won	10,000	$4.8K
Roehampton 2: Fabrizio Andaloro vs Emile Hudd — Fabrizio Andaloro	0.1200	lost	1,751	−$210
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-28? — No	0.4820	won	10,373	$5.4K
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) — VfB Stuttgart	0.4936	lost	6,517	−$3.2K
LoL: Team Vitality vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season — Fnatic	0.4204	lost	10,146	−$4.3K
Counter-Strike: M80 vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner — M80	0.2517	lost	16,507	−$4.2K

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →