Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 3 | 5% | 0% | −5pp |
| 10–25% | 4 | 18% | 25% | +7pp |
| 25–40% | 8 | 32% | 38% | +5pp |
| 40–60% | 2 | 55% | 50% | −5pp |
| 75–90% | 1 | 90% | 100% | +10pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $11.4K across 18 positions, with $206 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card) — Gregory Rodrigues | 0.3400 | won | 4,412 | $2.9K |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) — Ian Machado Garry | 0.2492 | lost | 14,604 | −$3.6K |
| UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims) — Elisha Ellison | 0.0998 | lost | 3,006 | −$300 |
| UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) — Junior Tafa | 0.2861 | lost | 2,446 | −$700 |
| UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) — Arnold Allen | 0.5400 | won | 926 | $426 |
| MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins — Lins | 0.1100 | lost | 909 | −$100 |
| UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card) — Israel Adesanya | 0.5600 | lost | 14,286 | −$8.0K |
| UFC Fight Night: Harry Hardwick vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Card) — Harry Hardwick | 0.3193 | lost | 9,083 | −$2.9K |
| UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) — Charles Oliveira | 0.3500 | won | 13,324 | $8.7K |
| UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) — Reinier de Ridder | 0.3316 | lost | 6,031 | −$2.0K |
| UFC Fight Night: King Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber (Lightweight, Main Card) — Green | 0.2229 | won | 10,094 | $7.8K |
| UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card) — Strickland | 0.2900 | won | 17,233 | $12.2K |
| Will Moonshot be accused of insider trading? — Yes | 0.0273 | lost | 367 | −$10 |
| Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? — Yes | 0.1200 | lost | 833 | −$100 |
| Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? — Yes | 0.3984 | lost | 5,020 | −$2.0K |
| Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? — Yes | 0.0330 | lost | 152 | −$5 |
| Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? — Yes | 0.2793 | lost | 3,580 | −$1000 |
| Will Binance be accused of insider trading? — No | 0.8999 | won | 1,000 | $100 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →