Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25–40% | 3 | 32% | 0% | −32pp |
| 40–60% | 3 | 53% | 67% | +14pp |
| 90–100% | 35 | 99% | 97% | −1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
88% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $3 across 41 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? — Yes | 0.9420 | won | 2 | $0 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? — Yes | 0.9300 | won | 3 | $0 |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.4400 | won | 7 | $4 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.3740 | lost | 13 | −$5 |
| Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9900 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9945 | won | 181 | $1 |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9930 | won | 98 | $1 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? — No | 0.9910 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9800 | won | 2 | $0 |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9950 | won | 181 | $1 |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9990 | won | 82 | $0 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9910 | won | 71 | $1 |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9930 | won | 78 | $1 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9870 | won | 2 | $0 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? — No | 0.9750 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? — No | 0.9990 | won | 91 | $0 |
| Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election? — Yes | 0.9500 | lost | 2 | −$2 |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9910 | won | 92 | $1 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? — No | 0.9770 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? — No | 0.9990 | won | 85 | $0 |
| Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga? — No | 0.9990 | won | 85 | $0 |
| Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? — No | 0.9980 | won | 85 | $0 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? — No | 0.9980 | won | 86 | $0 |
| Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? — No | 0.9990 | won | 87 | $0 |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9970 | won | 83 | $0 |
| Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 84 | $0 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? — Yes | 0.3460 | lost | 6 | −$2 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? — No | 0.9400 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? — No | 0.9840 | won | 2 | $0 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 4? — No | 0.9950 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? — No | 0.9919 | won | 190 | $2 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026? — No | 0.9920 | won | 2 | $0 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? — Yes | 0.9760 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? — Yes | 0.2500 | lost | 9 | −$2 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? — Yes | 0.5700 | won | 5 | $2 |
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card) — Chris Duncan | 0.5800 | lost | 3 | −$1 |
| Will Alabama win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? — No | 0.9940 | won | 99 | $1 |
| Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? — Yes | 0.9870 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? — No | 0.9894 | won | 88 | $1 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? — No | 0.9970 | won | 88 | $0 |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? — Yes | 0.9860 | won | 30 | $0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →