Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Only 6 resolved positions. Below about 8 these scores are noise rather than signal: a couple of lucky or unlucky resolutions move them entirely. Treat everything here as provisional.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 4% | 0% | −4pp |
| 10–25% | 3 | 18% | 0% | −18pp |
| 75–90% | 1 | 76% | 100% | +24pp |
| 90–100% | 1 | 94% | 100% | +6pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$111.4K across 6 positions, with $6.4K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — Yes | 0.1495 | lost | 26,232 | −$3.9K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.2058 | lost | 474,216 | −$97.6K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.1771 | lost | 55,644 | −$9.9K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.7600 | won | 9 | $2 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0365 | lost | 4,027 | −$147 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? — Yes | 0.9400 | won | 1,898 | $114 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →