Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.2475

across 70 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

−2%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

9.2pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

41%

29 of 70 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	7	3%	0%	−3pp
10–25%	8	15%	38%	+22pp
25–40%	6	33%	33%	−0pp
40–60%	33	50%	52%	+1pp
60–75%	12	66%	33%	−33pp
75–90%	4	77%	75%	−2pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$289

8 open positions

Largest position

24%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$1

against $289 of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $195 across 70 positions, with $30 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0440	lost	681	−$30
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0261	lost	1,149	−$30
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.1180	lost	847	−$100
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0300	lost	667	−$20
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0590	lost	339	−$20
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.1020	lost	98	−$10
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.1680	won	595	$495
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance — Spain	0.5875	won	601	$248
France vs. England: Team to Win — France	0.5300	lost	38	−$20
Will France win on 2026-07-18? — Yes	0.4598	lost	130	−$60
England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 — Over	0.5654	won	219	$95
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15? — Yes	0.1000	won	100	$90
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance — England	0.5350	lost	280	−$150
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score — Yes	0.6100	lost	82	−$50
France vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 — Over	0.7650	won	26	$6
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance — Spain	0.4425	won	45	$25
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 — Over	0.5975	lost	100	−$60
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? — No	0.4400	won	45	$25
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals — Yes	0.5300	lost	19	−$10
Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5 — Over	0.7420	lost	67	−$50
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 — Over	0.2359	lost	42	−$10
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 — Over	0.5625	won	9	$4
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 — Over	0.5100	lost	20	−$10
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 — Over	0.4370	won	46	$26
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 — Over	0.6000	won	167	$67
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 — Over	0.7900	won	63	$13
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? — Yes	0.5321	won	132	$62
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance — Brazil	0.7100	lost	42	−$30
Spread: France (-1.5) — France	0.5700	lost	175	−$100
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance — Canada	0.4200	lost	48	−$20
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? — No	0.3200	won	16	$11
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score — Yes	0.4800	won	10	$5
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advance — Switzerland	0.6600	won	30	$10
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? — Yes	0.4875	won	21	$11
Spread: Spain (-1.5) — Spain	0.4875	won	21	$11
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — Yes	0.0060	lost	167	−$1
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova — Jessica Pegula	0.6300	lost	8	−$5
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro — Emma Navarro	0.5500	lost	9	−$5
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) — Paul	0.5900	lost	8	−$5
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) — Fritz	0.4600	lost	11	−$5
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? — Yes	0.5200	lost	77	−$40
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? — No	0.4460	won	45	$25
Will England win on 2026-06-23? — Yes	0.6680	lost	45	−$30
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? — Yes	0.0500	lost	20	−$1
Spread: England (-1.5) — England	0.6200	lost	32	−$20
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? — No	0.1500	lost	67	−$10
Spread: France (-2.5) — France	0.5900	won	34	$14
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? — No	0.3500	lost	114	−$40
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? — Yes	0.1500	won	7	$6
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) — Argentina	0.4100	won	24	$14
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? — Yes	0.6400	lost	156	−$100
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) — Belgium	0.4500	lost	22	−$10
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 — Over	0.3300	lost	30	−$10
Spread: Spain (-2.5) — Saudi Arabia	0.4700	lost	21	−$10
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? — No	0.3871	lost	258	−$100
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs — Spirit	0.3500	lost	14	−$5
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? — Yes	0.6800	won	147	$47
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? — Yes	0.7700	won	13	$3
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 — Under	0.7200	lost	14	−$10
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? — Yes	0.4900	won	20	$10

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →