Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 1% | 0% | −1pp |
| 10–25% | 1 | 21% | 0% | −21pp |
| 25–40% | 15 | 34% | 20% | −14pp |
| 40–60% | 125 | 50% | 53% | +3pp |
| 60–75% | 10 | 64% | 60% | −4pp |
| 75–90% | 3 | 84% | 100% | +16pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$83 across 155 positions, with $3.8K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 — Over | 0.5900 | lost | 6,012 | −$3.5K |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres — Toronto Blue Jays | 0.5500 | lost | 909 | −$500 |
| Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers — Texas Rangers | 0.5700 | won | 877 | $377 |
| Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox — Athletics | 0.4379 | lost | 11,364 | −$5.0K |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins — Miami Marlins | 0.5000 | lost | 10,000 | −$5.0K |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — Colorado Rockies | 0.2520 | won | 19,763 | $14.8K |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.6830 | lost | 176 | −$120 |
| PortlandFire vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 — Over | 0.5300 | won | 126 | $59 |
| Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) — Toronto Tempo | 0.5200 | lost | 223 | −$116 |
| Los Angeles Sparks vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 179.5 — Under | 0.4500 | lost | 2,202 | −$991 |
| Los Angeles Sparks vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 181.5 — Over | 0.4800 | won | 98 | $51 |
| LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season — Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition | 0.5300 | won | 44 | $21 |
| LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs Team Orange Gaming (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season — Team Orange Gaming | 0.5100 | won | 18 | $9 |
| Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 — Over | 0.4900 | lost | 1,020 | −$500 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 — Over | 0.4500 | lost | 11 | −$5 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 — Over | 0.4400 | lost | 11 | −$5 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 — Under | 0.4700 | lost | 11 | −$5 |
| New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 176.5 — Over | 0.5200 | won | 10 | $5 |
| Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) — New York Liberty | 0.4700 | lost | 10 | −$5 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.4300 | lost | 4,930 | −$2.1K |
| Seattle Storm vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 168.5 — Under | 0.5197 | won | 1,116 | $536 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals — Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.4100 | lost | 12,195 | −$5.0K |
| Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) — Indiana Fever | 0.5000 | lost | 9,763 | −$4.9K |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals — Kansas City Royals | 0.4700 | lost | 10,443 | −$4.9K |
| Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5) — Chicago Sky | 0.5000 | won | 261 | $131 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 — Over | 0.4400 | won | 227 | $127 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics — Athletics | 0.3900 | lost | 15,284 | −$6.0K |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 — Over | 0.4500 | lost | 222 | −$100 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 — Over | 0.5000 | won | 200 | $100 |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros — Minnesota Twins | 0.4500 | won | 4,100 | $2.3K |
| Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) — Milwaukee Brewers | 0.3900 | lost | 256 | −$100 |
| Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) — Kansas City Royals | 0.4600 | won | 153 | $83 |
| Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 — Under | 0.5600 | lost | 179 | −$100 |
| Golden State Valkyries vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 157.5 — Under | 0.5400 | won | 10 | $4 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Cincinnati Reds | 0.4400 | lost | 17,045 | −$7.5K |
| Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 180.5 — Over | 0.5100 | lost | 66 | −$34 |
| Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) — Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.5400 | lost | 185 | −$100 |
| Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) — Chicago Sky | 0.5100 | won | 255 | $125 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays — Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.4500 | lost | 11,111 | −$5.0K |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Chicago Cubs | 0.3200 | lost | 12,004 | −$3.8K |
| Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) — Cincinnati Reds | 0.5500 | won | 182 | $82 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 — Over | 0.5300 | lost | 189 | −$100 |
| Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Texas Rangers | 0.4300 | won | 11,628 | $6.6K |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals | 0.4600 | lost | 10,870 | −$5.0K |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.0090 | lost | 1,000 | −$9 |
| Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) — Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.5000 | lost | 6,000 | −$3.0K |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals — Philadelphia Phillies | 0.6300 | won | 7,937 | $2.9K |
| New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers | 0.5100 | won | 9,804 | $4.8K |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays — Kansas City Royals | 0.3700 | won | 13,514 | $8.5K |
| Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins — Texas Rangers | 0.4400 | won | 11,111 | $6.2K |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds — Cincinnati Reds | 0.4200 | lost | 1,334 | −$560 |
| Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) — Baltimore Orioles | 0.4700 | lost | 1,749 | −$822 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves — Atlanta Braves | 0.5449 | lost | 395 | −$215 |
| San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers — Texas Rangers | 0.6000 | won | 8,333 | $3.3K |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — Minnesota Twins | 0.4400 | won | 11,364 | $6.4K |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees — Cincinnati Reds | 0.4700 | won | 10,638 | $5.6K |
| New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies — New York Mets | 0.3768 | lost | 13,158 | −$5.0K |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — Baltimore Orioles | 0.3366 | won | 13,186 | $8.7K |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics — Athletics | 0.6000 | lost | 1,566 | −$940 |
| Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 — Over | 0.5100 | lost | 4,382 | −$2.2K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →