04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.0660
across 658 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+70%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
3.0pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
67%
442 of 658 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 111 | 5% | 5% | +1pp |
| 10–25% | 63 | 16% | 11% | −5pp |
| 25–40% | 16 | 33% | 31% | −2pp |
| 40–60% | 33 | 49% | 45% | −4pp |
| 60–75% | 23 | 68% | 48% | −20pp |
| 75–90% | 103 | 85% | 89% | +4pp |
| 90–100% | 309 | 97% | 99% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$258.5K
390 open positions
Largest position
6%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
16
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
−$1.50M
against $258.5K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$132.8K across 658 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? — Yes | 0.9776 | won | 21,016 | $472 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9990 | won | 50,000 | $50 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9527 | won | 9,434 | $446 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.4195 | lost | 25,022 | −$10.5K |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.0879 | lost | 8,552 | −$752 |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.0526 | lost | 18,149 | −$954 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.0517 | lost | 7,021 | −$363 |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9845 | won | 35,031 | $542 |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9740 | won | 738 | $19 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9820 | won | 37 | $1 |
| Will the San Jose Sharks win the Western Conference? — No | 0.9970 | won | 325 | $1 |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? — No | 0.9990 | won | 10,000 | $10 |
| Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? — No | 0.9990 | won | 20,000 | $20 |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? — Yes | 0.2164 | lost | 3,353 | −$726 |
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? — Yes | 0.1088 | lost | 1,657 | −$180 |
| Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? — Yes | 0.0525 | lost | 3,207 | −$168 |
| Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? — Yes | 0.0688 | lost | 668 | −$46 |
| Will the Seattle Kraken win the Western Conference? — No | 0.9790 | won | 57 | $1 |
| Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the Eastern Conference? — No | 0.9500 | won | 95 | $5 |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? — No | 0.9194 | won | 1,848 | $149 |
| Will the New York Islanders win the Eastern Conference? — No | 0.9525 | won | 179 | $8 |
| Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the Eastern Conference? — No | 0.9700 | won | 114 | $3 |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? — Yes | 0.1568 | won | 124 | $104 |
| Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the Eastern Conference? — No | 0.9900 | won | 110 | $1 |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the Eastern Conference? — No | 0.9000 | won | 3,135 | $313 |
| Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? — No | 0.9791 | won | 973 | $20 |
| Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? — No | 0.9858 | won | 1,225 | $17 |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? — No | 0.9718 | won | 14,326 | $404 |
| Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the Western Conference? — No | 0.9910 | won | 216 | $2 |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference? — No | 0.8293 | won | 106 | $18 |
| Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? — No | 0.9907 | won | 109 | $1 |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? — No | 0.8900 | lost | 580 | −$516 |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? — No | 0.8800 | won | 831 | $100 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — Yes | 0.4683 | lost | 384 | −$180 |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — No | 0.9510 | won | 336 | $16 |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — Yes | 0.0258 | lost | 322 | −$8 |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — Yes | 0.0230 | lost | 124 | −$3 |
| Will the Sacramento Kings win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — No | 0.9990 | won | 10,100 | $10 |
| Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — No | 0.9989 | won | 954 | $1 |
| Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — No | 0.9980 | won | 3,290 | $7 |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — No | 0.9970 | won | 10,000 | $30 |
| Will the Dallas Mavericks win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — No | 0.9742 | won | 6,200 | $160 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — No | 0.9399 | lost | 320 | −$301 |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — No | 0.8898 | won | 435 | $48 |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — No | 0.8100 | won | 47 | $9 |
| Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — No | 0.9917 | won | 1,049 | $9 |
| Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — No | 0.9891 | won | 11,017 | $120 |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? — Yes | 0.1484 | lost | 421 | −$62 |
| Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? — No | 0.9505 | won | 2,308 | $114 |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1,270 | $1 |
| Will the Washington Wizards win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? — No | 0.9979 | won | 5,676 | $12 |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? — Yes | 0.1000 | lost | 120 | −$12 |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? — Yes | 0.1100 | lost | 278 | −$31 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? — No | 0.7443 | lost | 221 | −$165 |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? — No | 0.8292 | won | 520 | $89 |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? — No | 0.8500 | won | 259 | $39 |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? — No | 0.8966 | won | 228 | $24 |
| Will the Brooklyn Nets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? — No | 0.9909 | won | 111 | $1 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? — No | 0.9900 | won | 10 | $0 |
| Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? — No | 0.9900 | won | 10 | $0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →