Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 9 | 3% | 0% | −3pp |
| 10–25% | 5 | 17% | 40% | +23pp |
| 25–40% | 8 | 33% | 13% | −21pp |
| 40–60% | 17 | 51% | 65% | +14pp |
| 60–75% | 8 | 69% | 63% | −6pp |
| 75–90% | 9 | 79% | 100% | +21pp |
| 90–100% | 25 | 96% | 100% | +4pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
95% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $15.1K across 81 positions, with $33 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5 — Over | 0.0080 | lost | 1,600 | −$13 |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9100 | won | 81 | $7 |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9759 | won | 2,410 | $58 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9140 | won | 5,850 | $503 |
| Warriors vs. Kings — Kings | 0.5500 | won | 4,865 | $2.2K |
| St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks — Kansas Jayhawks | 0.3700 | lost | 1,984 | −$734 |
| TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils — Duke Blue Devils | 0.9200 | won | 2,992 | $239 |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans — Louisville Cardinals | 0.1200 | lost | 3,985 | −$478 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? — Yes | 0.2800 | lost | 18 | −$5 |
| Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? — No | 0.9372 | won | 12,489 | $785 |
| Will Man City win the FIFA Club World Cup? — No | 0.8300 | won | 7,800 | $1.3K |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.0717 | lost | 18,543 | −$1.3K |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9825 | won | 25,264 | $443 |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9700 | won | 221 | $7 |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9340 | won | 9,369 | $618 |
| Will Aston Villa vs. Newcastle end in a draw? — Yes | 0.0090 | lost | 10 | −$0 |
| Will Biden finish his term? — Yes | 0.7600 | won | 500 | $120 |
| Magic vs. Raptors — Magic | 0.5300 | won | 613 | $288 |
| Magic vs. Pistons — Pistons | 0.5400 | won | 2,235 | $1.0K |
| Heat vs. Rockets — Heat | 0.2400 | won | 1,809 | $1.4K |
| Grizzlies vs. Thunder — Thunder | 0.7400 | won | 5,000 | $1.3K |
| Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-04? — No | 0.5199 | won | 816 | $392 |
| Will Bournemouth vs. Everton end in a draw? — No | 0.7600 | won | 793 | $190 |
| Bird flu pandemic in 2024? — No | 0.9200 | won | 555 | $44 |
| Will Manchester United vs. Newcastle end in a draw? — No | 0.7300 | won | 471 | $127 |
| Will Aston Villa vs. Brighton end in a draw? — No | 0.7400 | lost | 2,790 | −$2.1K |
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? — Yes | 0.1200 | lost | 5 | −$1 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? — Yes | 0.3100 | lost | 444 | −$138 |
| Will Tottenham vs. Chelsea end in a draw? — No | 0.9900 | won | 121 | $1 |
| Will Manchester United vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? — No | 0.9990 | won | 6 | $0 |
| Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07? — No | 0.4200 | won | 1,217 | $706 |
| Will Fulham win on 2024-12-05? — No | 0.5800 | lost | 866 | −$502 |
| Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-04? — No | 0.9990 | won | 155 | $0 |
| Will Aston Villa vs. Brentford end in a draw? — No | 0.7600 | won | 2 | $1 |
| Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw? — No | 0.8000 | won | 80 | $16 |
| Will Villa win on 2024-11-23? — No | 0.4400 | won | 1,110 | $622 |
| Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-23? — No | 0.3079 | lost | 3,478 | −$1.1K |
| Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-10? — No | 0.9990 | won | 53 | $0 |
| Will Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle end in a draw? — No | 0.7200 | won | 1,000 | $280 |
| Will Leicester win on 2024-11-10? — No | 0.9000 | won | 763 | $76 |
| Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-10? — No | 0.6500 | won | 402 | $141 |
| Will Spurs win on 2024-11-10? — No | 0.2100 | won | 5 | $4 |
| Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? — No | 0.4500 | won | 6,400 | $3.5K |
| Will Fenerbahce beat AZ Alkmaar? — No | 0.5500 | won | 16 | $7 |
| Fed rate cut by November 7? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 5,000 | $5 |
| Will Aston Villa beat Club Brugge? — Yes | 0.4900 | lost | 209 | −$102 |
| Will the match between Paris Saint-Germain and Atletico Madrid end in a draw? — No | 0.7900 | won | 1,997 | $419 |
| Will Aston Villa beat Club Brugge? — No | 0.5481 | won | 536 | $242 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? — Yes | 0.8829 | won | 38,102 | $4.5K |
| Will Borussia Dortmund beat Sturm Graz? — No | 0.1670 | lost | 164 | −$27 |
| Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? — Yes | 0.5200 | lost | 1,111 | −$578 |
| Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election? — Yes | 0.3900 | lost | 120 | −$47 |
| Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? — Yes | 0.6600 | lost | 1,111 | −$733 |
| Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election? — No | 0.4400 | lost | 222 | −$98 |
| Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election? — No | 0.5900 | won | 555 | $228 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? — No | 0.4978 | lost | 555 | −$276 |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? — No | 0.9870 | won | 1,000 | $13 |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? — No | 0.9900 | won | 100 | $1 |
| Trump gets more black voters than in 2020? — Yes | 0.7500 | won | 86 | $22 |
| Will a Republican win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? — Yes | 0.2600 | lost | 20 | −$5 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →