Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 20 | 2% | 0% | −2pp |
| 10–25% | 1 | 14% | 0% | −14pp |
| 90–100% | 1 | 97% | 100% | +3pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$4.4K across 22 positions, with $134 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in July? — Yes | 0.0743 | lost | 135 | −$10 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in July? — Yes | 0.0400 | lost | 125 | −$5 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.2% or less in July? — Yes | 0.0391 | lost | 256 | −$10 |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.0032 | lost | 145,322 | −$462 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0035 | lost | 51,146 | −$179 |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0016 | lost | 10,434 | −$17 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0532 | lost | 1,213 | −$65 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9740 | won | 13 | $0 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0050 | lost | 230,339 | −$1.1K |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0017 | lost | 12,300 | −$22 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.0931 | lost | 4,679 | −$435 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0420 | lost | 1,833 | −$77 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0041 | lost | 150,000 | −$611 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.0107 | lost | 6,927 | −$74 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 2,968 | −$3 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0212 | lost | 1,200 | −$25 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0041 | lost | 3,176 | −$13 |
| Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the July Meeting? — Yes | 0.0018 | lost | 5,549 | −$10 |
| Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting? — Yes | 0.1400 | lost | 7 | −$1 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? — No | 0.0050 | lost | 216,695 | −$1.1K |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0023 | lost | 16,333 | −$37 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0042 | lost | 16,190 | −$68 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →