Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.0699

across 30 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

−12%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

8.6pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

2 of 30 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	13	4%	0%	−4pp
10–25%	10	16%	10%	−6pp
25–40%	5	30%	20%	−10pp
40–60%	2	48%	0%	−48pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$2.9K

1 open position

Largest position

100%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

−$356

against $2.9K of open value

100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$1.0K across 30 positions, with $167 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina? — Yes	0.0300	lost	356	−$11
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Argentina? — Yes	0.0420	lost	357	−$15
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina? — Yes	0.1000	lost	350	−$35
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina? — Yes	0.1200	lost	83	−$10
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England? — Yes	0.0800	lost	130	−$10
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 England? — Yes	0.0330	lost	1,212	−$40
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 England? — Yes	0.0290	lost	1,207	−$35
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? — Yes	0.2550	lost	784	−$200
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Egypt? — Yes	0.0700	lost	143	−$10
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Colombia? — Yes	0.1000	lost	379	−$38
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Colombia? — Yes	0.0431	lost	905	−$39
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07? — Yes	0.4200	lost	134	−$56
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06? — Yes	0.3500	won	57	$37
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Spain? — Yes	0.0233	lost	1,910	−$45
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain? — Yes	0.0170	lost	1,471	−$25
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Spain? — Yes	0.0700	lost	166	−$12
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 Spain? — Yes	0.0360	lost	833	−$30
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Spain? — Yes	0.1400	lost	200	−$28
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? — Yes	0.2370	lost	1,722	−$408
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? — Yes	0.2700	lost	370	−$100
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Spain? — Yes	0.0330	lost	909	−$30
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? — Yes	0.5400	lost	48	−$26
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05? — Yes	0.2100	won	571	$451
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? — Yes	0.1100	lost	666	−$73
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? — Yes	0.0640	lost	510	−$33
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? — Yes	0.1800	lost	333	−$60
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) — Deiveson Figueiredo	0.1843	lost	485	−$89
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) — Yadong	0.3500	lost	29	−$10
Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO? — Yes	0.1774	lost	28	−$5
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan — China	0.2700	lost	66	−$18

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →