04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.0669
across 152 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+58%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
5.0pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
20%
30 of 152 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 101 | 1% | 0% | −1pp |
| 10–25% | 19 | 17% | 37% | +20pp |
| 25–40% | 7 | 31% | 43% | +12pp |
| 40–60% | 2 | 50% | 50% | −0pp |
| 60–75% | 4 | 72% | 50% | −22pp |
| 75–90% | 8 | 81% | 88% | +7pp |
| 90–100% | 11 | 96% | 91% | −5pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$3.5K
47 open positions
Largest position
19%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
5
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
−$2.4K
against $3.5K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$1.6K across 152 positions, with $20 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 40,000 | −$40 |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 560,789 | −$561 |
| Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 9,137 | −$9 |
| Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 3,986 | −$4 |
| Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 22 | −$0 |
| Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 250 | −$0 |
| Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 12,149 | −$12 |
| Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 5,015 | −$5 |
| Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 278 | −$1 |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 150,000 | −$450 |
| Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 3,000 | −$6 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? — Yes | 0.0275 | lost | 364 | −$10 |
| Will Ye be dropped as Wireless Headliner? — Yes | 0.7444 | won | 262 | $67 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? — Yes | 0.1467 | lost | 68 | −$10 |
| Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 519 | −$1 |
| James Collier announced as next James Bond? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 1,000 | −$1 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? — No | 0.2700 | lost | 37 | −$10 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? — Yes | 0.1280 | lost | 10 | −$1 |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? — Yes | 0.1500 | lost | 67 | −$10 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? — Yes | 0.2900 | won | 34 | $24 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? — Yes | 0.0160 | lost | 375 | −$6 |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — Yes | 0.2300 | lost | 100 | −$23 |
| Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 1,000 | −$1 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.1749 | won | 114 | $94 |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? — No | 0.6900 | lost | 14 | −$10 |
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election — No | 0.0040 | lost | 1,253 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET — Up | 0.1696 | lost | 23 | −$4 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET — Down | 0.2009 | lost | 10 | −$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET — Down | 0.0845 | lost | 59 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET — Up | 0.0475 | lost | 63 | −$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET — Down | 0.0787 | lost | 152 | −$12 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET — Down | 0.2100 | won | 48 | $38 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET — Up | 0.0643 | lost | 31 | −$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET — Down | 0.3224 | won | 6 | $4 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET — Up | 0.2100 | lost | 5 | −$1 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET — Down | 0.1662 | won | 12 | $10 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET — Up | 0.0968 | lost | 21 | −$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET — Down | 0.3800 | won | 3 | $2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET — Down | 0.1737 | won | 12 | $10 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET — Up | 0.2604 | lost | 8 | −$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET — Down | 0.5100 | lost | 2 | −$1 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET — Up | 0.5000 | won | 2 | $1 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.2479 | won | 86 | $65 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.7700 | lost | 13 | −$10 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.1462 | lost | 68 | −$10 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026? — Yes | 0.9100 | won | 143 | $13 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026? — Yes | 0.9100 | won | 129 | $12 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026? — Yes | 0.8500 | won | 118 | $18 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.8500 | won | 12 | $2 |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.1165 | lost | 515 | −$60 |
| Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Yes | 0.0139 | lost | 1,140 | −$16 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? — No | 0.7700 | won | 50 | $12 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026? — Yes | 0.0044 | lost | 6,425 | −$28 |
| Will Bayern Munich finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings? — No | 0.0290 | lost | 200 | −$6 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? — Yes | 0.0050 | lost | 6 | −$0 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 6,200 | −$6 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET — Up | 0.0100 | lost | 857 | −$9 |
| Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? — No | 0.2800 | lost | 133 | −$37 |
| Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? — Yes | 0.1406 | lost | 2,846 | −$400 |
| Will Martin Lidegaard be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 2,858 | −$3 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →