Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.2041

across 64 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+17%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

5.8pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

44%

28 of 64 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	4	1%	0%	−1pp
10–25%	11	20%	27%	+8pp
25–40%	14	32%	29%	−3pp
40–60%	13	50%	46%	−4pp
60–75%	10	66%	60%	−6pp
75–90%	10	81%	70%	−11pp
90–100%	2	92%	100%	+8pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

1 open position

Largest position

100%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

−$1

against $4 of open value

100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$3.3K across 64 positions, with $4 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-08-13? — Yes	0.3600	lost	10	−$4
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw? — Yes	0.3100	lost	18	−$5
Will CF América win on 2026-08-13? — Yes	0.4400	lost	21	−$9
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-13? — Yes	0.3500	won	52	$34
Washington Mystics vs. Las Vegas Aces — Washington Mystics	0.3200	lost	29	−$9
Will Portland Timbers vs. Club Tijuana end in a draw? — Yes	0.2500	lost	36	−$9
Los Angeles Sparks vs. New York Liberty — Los Angeles Sparks	0.2400	lost	38	−$9
Will Austin FC win on 2026-08-13? — Yes	0.2900	lost	19	−$5
Will FC Andijon win on 2026-08-13? — Yes	0.1900	lost	10	−$2
Will New York City FC vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw? — Yes	0.2300	lost	63	−$15
Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun — Atlanta Dream	0.8200	won	14	$2
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-08-13? — Yes	0.6800	lost	22	−$15
Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-08-13? — Yes	0.2000	won	20	$16
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-08-12? — Yes	0.3300	won	28	$19
Will Club León FC win on 2026-08-12? — Yes	0.2800	won	33	$23
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-08-12? — Yes	0.5000	lost	18	−$9
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Club León FC end in a draw? — Yes	0.2300	lost	40	−$9
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-08-12? — Yes	0.6300	lost	9	−$6
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-08-11? — Yes	0.7000	lost	32	−$22
Will Atlas FC win on 2026-08-11? — Yes	0.1400	won	39	$34
New York Liberty vs. Indiana Fever — New York Liberty	0.3900	lost	50	−$19
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-08-11? — Yes	0.5500	lost	30	−$17
New York Liberty vs. Indiana Fever — Indiana Fever	0.6200	won	18	$7
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-08-11? — Yes	0.2400	won	84	$64
Will Charlotte FC vs. CF Pachuca end in a draw? — Yes	0.2300	lost	51	−$12
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream — Toronto Tempo	0.1300	lost	37	−$5
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-08-09? — Yes	0.0010	lost	4,760	−$5
Will Club Puebla win on 2026-08-09? — Yes	0.0010	lost	4,760	−$5
Will Ravenna FC win on 2026-08-09? — Yes	0.1700	lost	28	−$5
Will SS Arezzo win on 2026-08-09? — Yes	0.4600	won	11	$6
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-08-07? — Yes	0.0010	lost	4,760	−$5
Golden State Valkyries vs. Dallas Wings — Golden State Valkyries	0.9244	won	10	$1
Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota Lynx — Minnesota Lynx	0.6600	won	10	$4
Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota Lynx — Las Vegas Aces	0.3500	lost	5	−$2
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-08-07? — Yes	0.4500	won	5	$3
76ers vs. Hornets — 76ers	0.4300	lost	100	−$43
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan — China	0.2500	lost	1,000	−$250
Celtics vs. Timberwolves — Timberwolves	0.4814	lost	11,449	−$5.5K
Pacers vs. Heat — Heat	0.5657	lost	884	−$500
Nets vs. Bucks — Bucks	0.8800	lost	2,273	−$2.0K
76ers vs. Kings — Kings	0.8057	won	1,241	$241
Hawks vs. Nuggets — Nuggets	0.8115	won	7,778	$1.5K
Mavericks vs. Rockets — Mavericks	0.0472	lost	4,240	−$200
Magic vs. Pistons — Pistons	0.5496	won	1,147	$517
Nets vs. Raptors — Nets	0.4891	lost	1,022	−$500
Pelicans vs. Heat — Heat	0.7892	won	5,068	$1.1K
Bulls vs. Wizards — Wizards	0.3300	won	303	$203
Grizzlies vs. Suns — Suns	0.6007	lost	4,162	−$2.5K
Timberwolves vs. Thunder — Timberwolves	0.1630	lost	1,270	−$207
Cavaliers vs. Lakers — Lakers	0.2900	lost	690	−$200
Raptors vs. Celtics — Celtics	0.9184	won	6,360	$519
Bucks vs. Pacers — Bucks	0.5620	won	1,779	$779
76ers vs. Trail Blazers — 76ers	0.7688	won	1,951	$451
Mavericks vs. Kings — Kings	0.5518	won	1,631	$731
Nuggets vs. Jazz — Nuggets	0.7733	won	1,940	$440
Clippers vs. Pelicans — Clippers	0.6481	won	1,738	$611
Cavaliers vs. Warriors — Cavaliers	0.6500	won	308	$108
Knicks vs. Wizards — Knicks	0.8500	won	1,176	$176
Grizzlies vs. Thunder — Thunder	0.7200	won	1,720	$482
Heat vs. Rockets — Rockets	0.7788	lost	128	−$100

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →