Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Only 6 resolved positions. Below about 8 these scores are noise rather than signal: a couple of lucky or unlucky resolutions move them entirely. Treat everything here as provisional.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 3% | 0% | −3pp |
| 10–25% | 1 | 19% | 0% | −19pp |
| 40–60% | 1 | 52% | 0% | −52pp |
| 75–90% | 2 | 85% | 100% | +15pp |
| 90–100% | 1 | 100% | 100% | +0pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $28 across 6 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026? — No | 0.8200 | won | 50 | $9 |
| Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on August 13? — Up | 0.5200 | lost | 5 | −$3 |
| Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? — Yes | 0.8800 | won | 34 | $4 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? — No | 0.9972 | won | 23,900 | $66 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? — No | 0.0280 | lost | 36 | −$1 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on March 26? — No | 0.1900 | lost | 247 | −$47 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →