Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–25% | 4 | 20% | 0% | −20pp |
| 25–40% | 7 | 34% | 29% | −5pp |
| 40–60% | 18 | 50% | 61% | +11pp |
| 60–75% | 31 | 68% | 61% | −7pp |
| 75–90% | 23 | 82% | 91% | +10pp |
| 90–100% | 2 | 95% | 100% | +5pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$73 across 85 positions, with $421 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — No | 0.2700 | lost | 148 | −$40 |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? — No | 0.7400 | won | 27 | $7 |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? — Yes | 0.4030 | won | 50 | $30 |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? — No | 0.4700 | lost | 43 | −$20 |
| BLS delays another CPI release before 2027? — No | 0.6462 | lost | 31 | −$20 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? — No | 0.7900 | lost | 99 | −$78 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? — No | 0.5216 | lost | 575 | −$300 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.7490 | won | 78 | $20 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026? — No | 0.7325 | won | 59 | $16 |
| Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? — Yes | 0.4388 | won | 310 | $174 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 15? — No | 0.1700 | lost | 882 | −$150 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 14? — No | 0.8644 | won | 160 | $22 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 15? — Yes | 0.4545 | won | 2,066 | $1.1K |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 14? — Yes | 0.7740 | won | 145 | $33 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 14? — No | 0.6825 | lost | 1,287 | −$878 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 14? — Yes | 0.8244 | won | 910 | $160 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 13? — No | 0.9496 | won | 788 | $40 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 12? — Yes | 0.6126 | won | 751 | $291 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 12? — No | 0.6098 | lost | 1,334 | −$813 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 11? — Yes | 0.8400 | won | 835 | $134 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 10? — No | 0.8300 | won | 349 | $59 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 10? — Yes | 0.6200 | won | 361 | $137 |
| Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? — Yes | 0.3039 | lost | 66 | −$20 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? — No | 0.6143 | lost | 65 | −$40 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No | 0.5400 | won | 37 | $17 |
| Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? — No | 0.8800 | won | 23 | $3 |
| Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30? — Yes | 0.8020 | won | 25 | $5 |
| Will Trump be impeached by June 30? — No | 0.9500 | won | 21 | $1 |
| Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30? — Yes | 0.7200 | lost | 28 | −$20 |
| Will Nettspend release an album by June 30? — Yes | 0.8800 | won | 23 | $3 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? — Yes | 0.4900 | won | 41 | $21 |
| Will Wrexham be promoted to the EPL? — No | 0.8700 | won | 23 | $3 |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? — No | 0.3100 | lost | 65 | −$20 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? — No | 0.6300 | won | 32 | $12 |
| Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? — No | 0.7300 | won | 27 | $7 |
| More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31? — Yes | 0.5900 | won | 34 | $14 |
| Péter Magyar sextape released by March 31 — No | 0.8000 | won | 25 | $5 |
| Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? — No | 0.4768 | won | 84 | $44 |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31? — No | 0.6800 | won | 29 | $9 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? — Yes | 0.5320 | lost | 75 | −$40 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? — Yes | 0.3398 | lost | 59 | −$20 |
| Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? — No | 0.7300 | won | 27 | $7 |
| Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? — Yes | 0.6587 | won | 30 | $10 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? — No | 0.6970 | won | 29 | $9 |
| Another US bank failure by March 31? — No | 0.7800 | won | 26 | $6 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? — No | 0.7600 | won | 26 | $6 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? — No | 0.7800 | won | 26 | $6 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? — Yes | 0.3800 | lost | 53 | −$20 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? — No | 0.8300 | won | 24 | $4 |
| Kristi Noem out by March 31? — No | 0.6900 | lost | 29 | −$20 |
| Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? — No | 0.8300 | won | 24 | $4 |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? — No | 0.6800 | won | 29 | $9 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? — No | 0.6634 | lost | 30 | −$20 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.4500 | won | 44 | $24 |
| ChatGPT Outage by March 15? — Yes | 0.6000 | lost | 33 | −$20 |
| Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? — Yes | 0.4169 | won | 48 | $28 |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 2? — Down | 0.5800 | lost | 34 | −$20 |
| Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 2? — Down | 0.6990 | lost | 29 | −$20 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? — Down | 0.7065 | lost | 28 | −$20 |
| Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by February 28, 2026? — No | 0.8100 | won | 25 | $5 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →