Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1847

across 759 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+25%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

2.7pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

44%

332 of 759 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	65	6%	2%	−4pp
10–25%	100	17%	13%	−4pp
25–40%	130	32%	30%	−2pp
40–60%	272	50%	48%	−2pp
60–75%	106	67%	72%	+5pp
75–90%	64	82%	81%	−1pp
90–100%	22	93%	95%	+3pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$357.0K

206 open positions

Largest position

26%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$24.1K

against $357.0K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$53.5K across 759 positions, with $5.2K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics — Athletics	0.4900	lost	29	−$14
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants — Arizona Diamondbacks	0.5200	won	87	$42
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants	0.4900	lost	287	−$141
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins — Minnesota Twins	0.5100	lost	104	−$53
Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Milwaukee Brewers	0.6334	won	13,101	$4.8K
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees — New York Yankees	0.5900	won	88	$36
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees — Boston Red Sox	0.4100	lost	4,085	−$1.7K
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs — Chicago Cubs	0.6404	lost	3,544	−$2.3K
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigers — Los Angeles Dodgers	0.6400	won	73	$26
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets — New York Mets	0.4900	lost	86	−$42
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays	0.5700	won	47	$20
San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays — San Diego Padres	0.4500	lost	52	−$24
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets — Houston Astros	0.5399	won	45	$21
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs — Cincinnati Reds	0.3600	won	117	$75
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals — Miami Marlins	0.5700	lost	50	−$29
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants	0.4700	won	755	$400
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves — Atlanta Braves	0.6900	won	272	$84
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — Arizona Diamondbacks	0.5500	won	32	$15
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies — Philadelphia Phillies	0.6400	won	42	$15
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners — Chicago Cubs	0.4900	won	3	$2
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners — Seattle Mariners	0.5300	lost	3	−$2
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-08-28? — Yes	0.4800	won	247	$128
Will Club León FC win on 2026-08-28? — Yes	0.3665	lost	2,804	−$1.0K
Spread: Cowboys (-2.5) — Cowboys	0.5016	lost	36	−$18
LoL: Cupid Esports vs Maryville University - Game 1 Winner — Cupid Esports	0.6000	won	3	$1
Will Portland Thorns FC win on 2026-08-28? — No	0.8700	won	63	$8
Saints vs. Cowboys — Cowboys	0.5813	lost	574	−$334
Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-08-28? — Yes	0.2894	lost	1,140	−$330
Spread: SEA (-2.5) — SEA	0.4185	lost	204	−$86
Vikings vs. Broncos — Broncos	0.6400	won	78	$28
Bengals vs. Eagles — Eagles	0.5700	lost	160	−$91
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs — NRG Esports	0.8000	lost	22	−$18
Vikings vs. Broncos — Vikings	0.3700	lost	39	−$15
NO vs. DAL: O/U 38.5 — Under	0.4996	lost	514	−$257
LoL: Cupid Esports vs Maryville University (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs — Maryville University	0.3700	lost	2,622	−$970
Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-08-28? — No	0.7200	won	750	$210
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-08-29? — Yes	0.5300	won	31	$15
Cardinals vs. Packers — Packers	0.5200	won	1,356	$651
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers — Los Angeles Angels	0.4212	lost	267	−$112
Athletics vs. Houston Astros — Athletics	0.3700	lost	129	−$48
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — Pittsburgh Pirates	0.3000	lost	6	−$2
Will Bohemians Dublin FC win on 2026-08-28? — Yes	0.7800	won	63	$14
Will AC Horsens vs. Viborg FF end in a draw? — No	0.8698	won	1,144	$149
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 — Under	0.4200	lost	1,166	−$490
Will Viborg FF win on 2026-08-28? — Yes	0.8458	won	838	$129
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) — Manchester City FC	0.3356	won	774	$514
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-08-28? — Yes	0.2800	won	688	$495
Will AC Horsens win on 2026-08-28? — Yes	0.0725	lost	913	−$66
AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Both Teams to Score — Yes	0.4748	lost	328	−$156
Will Galway United FC win on 2026-08-28? — No	0.6565	won	17	$6
Will Viborg FF win on 2026-08-28? — No	0.3839	lost	1,221	−$469
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners — Over	0.4932	lost	1,379	−$680
Will Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC vs. Grenoble Foot 38 end in a draw? — Yes	0.3100	lost	302	−$94
Will Grenoble Foot 38 win on 2026-08-28? — No	0.5100	lost	5	−$3
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) — Paris Saint-Germain FC	0.3353	lost	2,088	−$700
Will Dundalk FC win on 2026-08-28? — No	0.5900	lost	2,780	−$1.6K
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners — Over	0.4000	lost	241	−$96
Exact Score: Lille OSC 0 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? — Yes	0.1000	lost	112	−$11
Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-08-28? — No	0.5300	won	14	$7
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-28? — Yes	0.5712	lost	14,108	−$8.1K

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →