Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1463

across 561 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+41%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

4.7pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

55%

306 of 561 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	39	5%	3%	−3pp
10–25%	68	17%	13%	−4pp
25–40%	65	32%	29%	−3pp
40–60%	125	50%	44%	−6pp
60–75%	83	68%	63%	−5pp
75–90%	84	82%	87%	+5pp
90–100%	97	96%	100%	+4pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$228.9K

500 open positions

Largest position

10%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

$44.8K

against $228.9K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $3.9K across 561 positions, with $1.7K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Maanshan 8 (China), hard: Rigele Te vs Chase Ferguson — Chase Ferguson	0.1294	lost	1,142	−$148
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Maanshan 8 (China), hard: Rigele Te vs Chase Ferguson — Rigele Te	0.8394	won	262	$42
Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics — Baltimore Orioles	0.4536	won	1,353	$739
Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics — Athletics	0.3783	lost	5,068	−$1.9K
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants — Arizona Diamondbacks	0.6167	won	764	$293
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W15 Tianjin 4 (China), hard: Han Shi vs Vaishnavi Adkar — Han Shi	0.9349	won	461	$30
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants	0.3758	lost	194	−$73
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W15 Tianjin 4 (China), hard: Han Shi vs Vaishnavi Adkar — Vaishnavi Adkar	0.1421	lost	56	−$8
Monterrey Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Elise Mertens — Elise Mertens	0.5896	won	47,894	$19.7K
Monterrey Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Elise Mertens — Nikola Bartunkova	0.5951	lost	18,697	−$11.1K
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W15 Tianjin 4 (China), hard: Jiangxue Han vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho — Jiangxue Han	0.1600	won	12	$10
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins — Chicago White Sox	0.5464	won	1,461	$663
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels — Los Angeles Angels	0.8000	lost	85	−$68
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels — Philadelphia Phillies	0.2776	won	2,671	$1.9K
Winston-Salem Open (Doubles): Miedler/Polmans vs Nouza/Oberleitner — Nouza/Oberleitner	0.9275	won	47	$3
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins — Minnesota Twins	0.4930	lost	418	−$206
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves — Colorado Rockies	0.1018	lost	10,237	−$1.0K
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves — Atlanta Braves	0.9000	won	7,608	$761
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees — New York Yankees	0.7347	won	525	$139
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees — Boston Red Sox	0.3581	lost	425	−$152
Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Texas Rangers	0.2411	lost	346	−$83
Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Milwaukee Brewers	0.7843	won	43	$9
Monterrey Open: Diane Parry vs Ann Li — Diane Parry	0.6352	won	30,958	$11.3K
Monterrey Open: Diane Parry vs Ann Li — Ann Li	0.4380	lost	29,185	−$12.8K
Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Luis Guto Miguel — Aidan Mayo	0.8874	won	19,889	$2.2K
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets — New York Mets	0.2983	lost	3,130	−$934
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigers — Los Angeles Dodgers	0.5045	won	191	$95
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers	0.4733	lost	191	−$90
Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Luis Guto Miguel — Luis Guto Miguel	0.2392	lost	1,087	−$260
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians — Kansas City Royals	0.5641	won	384	$167
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Seattle Mariners	0.2716	lost	931	−$253
San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays — San Diego Padres	0.0994	lost	2,376	−$236
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians — Cleveland Guardians	0.5712	lost	1,269	−$725
San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays — Tampa Bay Rays	0.7443	won	1,038	$265
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets — Houston Astros	0.4734	won	537	$283
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals — Miami Marlins	0.4976	lost	412	−$205
Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — Arthur Fery	0.7200	won	5	$1
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays	0.7385	won	3,289	$860
Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — James Duckworth	0.4146	lost	1,556	−$645
Kingston 2: Rodrigo Pacheco vs Andres Andrade — Andres Andrade	0.7361	won	719	$190
Kingston 2: Rodrigo Pacheco vs Andres Andrade — Rodrigo Pacheco	0.2832	lost	403	−$114
Winston-Salem Open: Ignacio Buse vs Benjamin Bonzi — Ignacio Buse	0.8958	won	28,350	$3.0K
Winston-Salem Open: Ignacio Buse vs Benjamin Bonzi — Benjamin Bonzi	0.1628	lost	7,019	−$1.1K
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 17.5 — Under	0.6800	won	10	$3
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) — San Francisco Giants	0.2216	lost	771	−$171
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) — Athletics	0.0300	lost	50	−$2
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) — Athletics	0.4635	won	1,430	$767
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) — Arizona Diamondbacks	0.4358	won	15	$8
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) — Baltimore Orioles	0.1546	lost	11	−$2
Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 — Under	0.7901	won	401	$84
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) — Arizona Diamondbacks	0.9448	won	76	$4
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) — Los Angeles Angels	0.1700	lost	546	−$93
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) — Philadelphia Phillies	0.4365	won	2,568	$1.4K
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 — Over	0.2482	lost	346	−$86
Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5 — Under	0.5100	lost	226	−$115
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) — Arizona Diamondbacks	0.8202	won	1,306	$235
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) — Baltimore Orioles	0.3638	lost	18	−$7
Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 — Over	0.0800	lost	45	−$4
Washington Mystics vs. Los Angeles Sparks — Los Angeles Sparks	0.4235	won	4,068	$2.3K
Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5 — Over	0.5528	lost	1,941	−$1.1K

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →