Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 79 | 3% | 0% | −3pp |
| 10–25% | 34 | 16% | 21% | +5pp |
| 25–40% | 20 | 32% | 20% | −12pp |
| 40–60% | 15 | 51% | 20% | −31pp |
| 60–75% | 7 | 66% | 57% | −9pp |
| 75–90% | 9 | 82% | 89% | +7pp |
| 90–100% | 153 | 99% | 99% | −0pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$5.8K across 317 positions, with $46 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? — Yes | 0.0400 | lost | 1,498 | −$60 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? — Yes | 0.0150 | lost | 1,348 | −$20 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? — Yes | 0.1786 | lost | 70 | −$12 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? — No | 0.7600 | won | 26 | $6 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? — Yes | 0.9559 | won | 371 | $16 |
| USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch? — No | 0.0967 | lost | 150 | −$15 |
| USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1,500 | $2 |
| Will Lionel Messi attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9305 | won | 214 | $15 |
| Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? — Yes | 0.8600 | won | 46 | $6 |
| Will Sabih Khan be the next CEO of Apple? — No | 0.9889 | won | 786 | $9 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? — No | 0.0030 | lost | 11,131 | −$33 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? — Yes | 0.6900 | won | 223 | $69 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? — No | 0.9810 | won | 196 | $4 |
| Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes | 0.0320 | lost | 70 | −$2 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9950 | won | 800 | $4 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 7,200 | −$22 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 27? — Down | 0.0030 | lost | 5 | −$0 |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) — Ian Machado Garry | 0.2465 | lost | 608 | −$150 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 14? — Down | 0.0100 | lost | 500 | −$5 |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? — No | 0.9500 | won | 73 | $4 |
| Will White House post 20-39 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 291 | $0 |
| Will White House post 0-19 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 100 | $0 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET — Down | 0.2698 | lost | 370 | −$100 |
| Will White House post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 145 | $0 |
| Will White House post 0-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 154 | $0 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? — Yes | 0.0700 | lost | 232 | −$16 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 31? — Down | 0.0010 | lost | 2,250 | −$2 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.7656 | won | 325 | $76 |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0060 | lost | 20,000 | −$120 |
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0090 | lost | 20,000 | −$180 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0162 | lost | 11,681 | −$189 |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0170 | lost | 8,888 | −$151 |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0110 | lost | 20,000 | −$220 |
| Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? — Yes | 0.3175 | won | 630 | $430 |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals — Yes | 0.5500 | won | 500 | $225 |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance — England | 0.5425 | lost | 500 | −$271 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 15? — Down | 0.0097 | lost | 707 | −$7 |
| Will White House post 0-19 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 660 | $1 |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? — No | 0.9868 | won | 260 | $3 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.0120 | lost | 1,000 | −$12 |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9980 | won | 3,500 | $7 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.1430 | won | 150 | $129 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.2370 | lost | 183 | −$43 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? — Yes | 0.0300 | lost | 2,048 | −$61 |
| Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? — No | 0.0400 | lost | 500 | −$20 |
| Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? — Yes | 0.0038 | lost | 1,735 | −$7 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? — No | 0.9850 | won | 500 | $8 |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.8741 | won | 4,222 | $531 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.9213 | won | 1,001 | $79 |
| US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 133 | $0 |
| US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? — Yes | 0.9000 | won | 35 | $3 |
| US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026? — Yes | 0.8400 | won | 61 | $10 |
| US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026? — Yes | 0.8100 | won | 136 | $26 |
| US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026? — Yes | 0.7800 | won | 130 | $29 |
| Will Luke Kornet score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9890 | won | 18 | $0 |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? — Yes | 0.0500 | lost | 1,000 | −$50 |
| Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? — Yes | 0.0290 | lost | 500 | −$15 |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.0010 | lost | 150 | −$0 |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) — FUT Esports | 0.0010 | lost | 10 | −$0 |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 — Over | 0.0010 | lost | 10 | −$0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →