Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 2 | 0% | 0% | −0pp |
| 10–25% | 1 | 14% | 100% | +86pp |
| 90–100% | 21 | 100% | 100% | +0pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $197 across 24 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — No | 0.9990 | won | 102 | $0 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9990 | won | 103 | $0 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.1370 | won | 222 | $192 |
| Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9990 | won | 111 | $0 |
| Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9990 | won | 107 | $0 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 382 | −$1 |
| Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9980 | won | 108 | $0 |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — Yes | 0.0070 | lost | 378 | −$3 |
| Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 109 | $0 |
| Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 217 | $0 |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9960 | won | 109 | $0 |
| Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 110 | $0 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 4? — No | 0.9918 | won | 111 | $1 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? — No | 0.9990 | won | 109 | $0 |
| Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9980 | won | 110 | $0 |
| Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9970 | won | 114 | $0 |
| Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9970 | won | 115 | $0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 111 | $0 |
| Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? — No | 0.9980 | won | 109 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? — No | 0.9960 | won | 112 | $0 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? — No | 0.9660 | won | 115 | $4 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? — No | 0.9980 | won | 113 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? — No | 0.9990 | won | 115 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? — No | 0.9990 | won | 113 | $0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →