Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 9 | 6% | 0% | −6pp |
| 10–25% | 9 | 15% | 22% | +7pp |
| 40–60% | 4 | 46% | 50% | +4pp |
| 60–75% | 5 | 72% | 80% | +8pp |
| 75–90% | 25 | 87% | 84% | −3pp |
| 90–100% | 258 | 96% | 98% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $10.1K across 310 positions, with $107 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9570 | won | 1,100 | $47 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? — Yes | 0.4800 | won | 300 | $156 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? — No | 0.9643 | won | 4,373 | $156 |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? — No | 0.9887 | won | 1,408 | $16 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? — No | 0.9497 | won | 3,035 | $153 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? — No | 0.9849 | won | 5,767 | $87 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July? — No | 0.9633 | won | 4,077 | $150 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July? — No | 0.9812 | won | 1,152 | $22 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? — No | 0.9839 | won | 5,082 | $82 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? — No | 0.9740 | won | 1,540 | $40 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9084 | won | 10,248 | $938 |
| Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes | 0.5400 | lost | 1,852 | −$1000 |
| Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? — Yes | 0.2451 | lost | 2,040 | −$500 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No | 0.7944 | won | 23,431 | $4.8K |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? — No | 0.9725 | won | 1,594 | $44 |
| Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? — No | 0.9144 | won | 1,681 | $144 |
| Starmer out by March 31, 2026? — No | 0.8500 | won | 1,200 | $180 |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? — No | 0.9620 | won | 3,024 | $115 |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? — No | 0.9367 | won | 5,237 | $331 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? — No | 0.9455 | won | 4,522 | $246 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? — No | 0.7241 | won | 1,243 | $343 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? — No | 0.8990 | won | 17,372 | $1.8K |
| Will Nuno Santo be the first EPL manager fired? — Yes | 0.9890 | won | 162 | $2 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? — No | 0.9404 | won | 5,622 | $335 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? — No | 0.9780 | won | 2,000 | $44 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? — No | 0.9780 | won | 1,550 | $34 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? — No | 0.7458 | won | 3,994 | $1.0K |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? — No | 0.9029 | won | 2,090 | $203 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? — No | 0.9849 | won | 350 | $5 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? — No | 0.9763 | won | 1,410 | $33 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? — No | 0.7202 | won | 4,281 | $1.2K |
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? — No | 0.9778 | won | 1,211 | $27 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? — No | 0.9685 | won | 2,931 | $92 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? — No | 0.7405 | lost | 6,171 | −$4.6K |
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? — No | 0.9866 | won | 854 | $11 |
| US strike on Mexico by March 31? — No | 0.9600 | won | 1,580 | $63 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? — No | 0.9408 | won | 3,810 | $226 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? — No | 0.9860 | won | 1,900 | $27 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? — No | 0.9760 | won | 3,892 | $93 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? — No | 0.9726 | won | 2,750 | $75 |
| Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? — No | 0.9474 | won | 537 | $28 |
| Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? — No | 0.9696 | won | 1,756 | $53 |
| Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? — No | 0.9451 | won | 1,132 | $62 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? — No | 0.9739 | won | 2,429 | $63 |
| Will Iran strike Yemen in March? — No | 0.9662 | won | 929 | $31 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 3? — No | 0.9866 | won | 1,480 | $20 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28? — No | 0.9780 | won | 2,121 | $47 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? — No | 0.9870 | won | 2,741 | $36 |
| Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 600k? — Yes | 0.9527 | won | 1,700 | $80 |
| Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? — Yes | 0.9879 | won | 1,106 | $13 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? — No | 0.9785 | won | 2,234 | $48 |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31? — No | 0.9840 | won | 1,698 | $27 |
| US strike on Colombia by January 31? — No | 0.9810 | won | 3,079 | $59 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in January? — No | 0.9750 | won | 2,710 | $68 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? — No | 0.9400 | won | 800 | $48 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? — No | 0.9739 | won | 1,580 | $41 |
| US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026? — No | 0.9703 | won | 1,313 | $39 |
| Will Trump say "Economy" during Fed chair announcement? — Yes | 0.9246 | lost | 1,365 | −$1.3K |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9478 | won | 2,300 | $120 |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? — Yes | 0.9691 | won | 2,774 | $86 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →