04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.1194
across 265 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+47%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
6.7pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
35%
92 of 265 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 84 | 3% | 1% | −2pp |
| 10–25% | 47 | 17% | 9% | −9pp |
| 25–40% | 40 | 33% | 43% | +10pp |
| 40–60% | 38 | 49% | 63% | +14pp |
| 60–75% | 27 | 67% | 67% | −1pp |
| 75–90% | 10 | 81% | 100% | +19pp |
| 90–100% | 19 | 99% | 95% | −4pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$185.2K
35 open positions
Largest position
24%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
3
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
−$8.7K
against $185.2K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $533 across 265 positions, with $13.5K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? — Yes | 0.9876 | won | 123,970 | $1.5K |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 9,000 | $18 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? — No | 0.9990 | won | 381 | $0 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? — No | 0.9797 | won | 33,283 | $677 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? — Yes | 0.3116 | lost | 92,056 | −$28.7K |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? — No | 0.9700 | won | 600 | $18 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? — No | 0.9900 | won | 34,050 | $341 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? — Yes | 0.1099 | lost | 3,046 | −$335 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? — No | 0.5343 | won | 6,473 | $3.0K |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? — No | 0.3000 | lost | 23,515 | −$7.1K |
| Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? — Yes | 0.0308 | lost | 33 | −$1 |
| Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? — No | 0.9547 | lost | 166 | −$158 |
| Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? — Yes | 0.0460 | won | 4,038 | $3.9K |
| Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? — Yes | 0.3400 | lost | 2,849 | −$969 |
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more? — No | 0.3988 | won | 11,042 | $6.6K |
| Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? — No | 0.4400 | won | 4,595 | $2.6K |
| Will Lindsey Graham be the next Senate Majority Leader? — No | 0.9990 | won | 37,816 | $38 |
| Trump renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026? — No | 0.2900 | lost | 1,221 | −$354 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? — No | 0.3666 | lost | 2,960 | −$1.1K |
| Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms? — No | 0.0900 | lost | 26,751 | −$2.4K |
| Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 9,005 | −$18 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Utah Jazz in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 9,342 | −$9 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 6,669 | −$7 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.4616 | won | 54,003 | $29.1K |
| Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? — No | 0.6989 | won | 48,805 | $14.7K |
| Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.3286 | lost | 36,146 | −$11.9K |
| Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.1375 | lost | 114,172 | −$15.7K |
| Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? — No | 0.5439 | won | 72,509 | $33.1K |
| Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0098 | lost | 24,257 | −$238 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0199 | lost | 23,612 | −$470 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.4785 | lost | 3,018 | −$1.4K |
| Will LeBron James play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 21,176 | −$21 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 30,226 | −$91 |
| Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0262 | lost | 9,140 | −$239 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? — No | 0.5326 | won | 9,136 | $4.3K |
| Will LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 14,077 | −$14 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Memphis Grizzlies in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 14,487 | −$14 |
| Will LeBron James play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 13,504 | −$14 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 14,036 | −$14 |
| Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 404 | −$0 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 6,308 | −$6 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 9,591 | −$10 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Portland Trail Blazers in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 5,627 | −$6 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 3,246 | −$3 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 5,091 | −$5 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 3,182 | −$3 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Charlotte Hornets in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 12,605 | −$13 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 5,080 | −$5 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 5,142 | −$5 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 5,080 | −$5 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 6,860 | −$7 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 1,727 | −$2 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? — No | 0.4785 | won | 22,614 | $11.8K |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves — Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.3199 | lost | 104,111 | −$33.3K |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals | 0.6774 | won | 134,743 | $43.5K |
| Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 142 | $1 |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21? — Yes | 0.0889 | lost | 19,267 | −$1.7K |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? — Yes | 0.3287 | won | 1,991 | $1.3K |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24? — Yes | 0.1555 | lost | 6,727 | −$1.0K |
| Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale? — No | 0.0213 | lost | 2,826 | −$60 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →