Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.0721

across 102 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+71%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

5.8pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

55%

56 of 102 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	17	4%	0%	−4pp
10–25%	13	15%	8%	−8pp
25–40%	7	30%	14%	−15pp
40–60%	11	47%	27%	−20pp
60–75%	5	70%	80%	+10pp
75–90%	8	83%	88%	+5pp
90–100%	41	97%	98%	+0pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$577.0K

10 open positions

Largest position

44%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$71.5K

against $577.0K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $595.7K across 102 positions, with $8.3K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? — No	0.5171	lost	1,586	−$820
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? — No	0.0700	lost	3,942	−$276
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — No	0.7400	won	2,794	$726
US forces enter Iran by December 31? — No	0.3142	lost	34,400	−$10.8K
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? — No	0.1300	lost	275	−$36
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? — No	0.1212	lost	234,320	−$28.4K
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No	0.9593	won	183,122	$7.4K
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.9369	won	208,383	$13.1K
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? — No	0.0659	lost	76,780	−$5.1K
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? — Yes	0.4605	won	13,340	$7.2K
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? — No	0.9872	won	26,438	$338
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? — No	0.0550	lost	2,079	−$114
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No	0.7797	won	986,559	$217.4K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.7780	won	1,212,367	$269.1K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0037	lost	1,800,708	−$6.7K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.1431	lost	328,992	−$47.1K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — No	0.1324	lost	1,424,548	−$188.6K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No	0.9950	won	207,105	$1.0K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No	0.9970	won	502,138	$1.5K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No	0.9950	won	119,433	$597
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) — Max Holloway	0.6500	won	50,039	$17.5K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — No	0.9930	won	20,010	$140
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes	0.4900	lost	49,232	−$24.1K
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No	0.6833	won	12,792	$4.1K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — Yes	0.1100	lost	51,489	−$5.7K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No	0.7072	won	231,724	$67.8K
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? — No	0.1328	lost	86	−$11
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? — No	0.2707	lost	101,477	−$27.5K
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? — Yes	0.5235	won	58,656	$27.9K
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? — No	0.4521	lost	229,078	−$103.6K
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? — No	0.4323	lost	93,117	−$40.3K
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? — No	0.2770	lost	6,636	−$1.8K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.9920	won	70,101	$561
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? — No	0.9970	won	250,038	$750
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? — No	0.9930	won	71,696	$502
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0176	lost	82,451	−$1.5K
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? — No	0.9920	won	3,521	$28
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? — No	0.9819	won	17,612	$318
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? — No	0.9579	won	20,931	$882
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? — No	0.8739	won	6,530	$823
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? — No	0.9690	won	8,897	$276
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? — No	0.9913	won	16,690	$146
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? — No	0.9734	won	95,372	$2.5K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? — No	0.9515	won	22,058	$1.1K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? — No	0.9300	won	8	$1
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — Yes	0.2500	lost	2,732	−$683
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? — Yes	0.5138	lost	4,011	−$2.1K
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? — No	0.9605	won	161,470	$6.4K
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? — No	0.9940	won	28,848	$173
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? — Yes	0.1802	lost	20,634	−$3.7K
Trump out as President by April 30? — No	0.9895	won	6,946	$73
US forces enter Iran by April 30? — Yes	0.9945	won	547,444	$3.0K
US forces enter Iran by April 30? — No	0.3846	lost	143,489	−$55.2K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.9790	won	158,071	$3.3K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? — No	0.9960	won	112,715	$455
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? — No	0.9901	won	41,365	$411
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? — No	0.1400	lost	11,595	−$1.6K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.1200	lost	20,431	−$2.5K
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? — No	0.7500	won	2,091	$523
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? — Yes	0.4015	lost	13,280	−$5.3K

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →