Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1652

across 427 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+31%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

4.9pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

40%

169 of 427 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	43	5%	2%	−3pp
10–25%	101	17%	9%	−8pp
25–40%	54	33%	31%	−1pp
40–60%	90	49%	46%	−4pp
60–75%	65	67%	62%	−5pp
75–90%	41	82%	80%	−1pp
90–100%	33	95%	85%	−10pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$152

6 open positions

Largest position

33%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

$16

against $152 of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$200 across 427 positions, with $26 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Monterrey Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Elise Mertens — Elise Mertens	0.4300	won	10	$6
Monterrey Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Elise Mertens — Nikola Bartunkova	0.4709	lost	11	−$5
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Taipei 2 (Taiwan), hard: Luca Castelnuovo vs Kuan Shou Chen — Kuan Shou Chen	0.4000	won	10	$6
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels — Philadelphia Phillies	0.1900	won	11	$9
Monterrey Open: Diane Parry vs Ann Li — Ann Li	0.2400	lost	10	−$2
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals	0.8700	won	10	$1
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves — Colorado Rockies	0.1855	lost	11	−$2
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals — Miami Marlins	0.5100	lost	10	−$5
Monterrey Open: Diane Parry vs Ann Li — Diane Parry	0.3900	won	10	$6
Kingston 2: Rodrigo Pacheco vs Andres Andrade — Andres Andrade	0.7100	won	10	$3
Winston-Salem Open: Ignacio Buse vs Benjamin Bonzi — Benjamin Bonzi	0.3300	lost	10	−$3
Winston-Salem Open: Ignacio Buse vs Benjamin Bonzi — Ignacio Buse	0.4400	won	10	$6
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W35 Barueri (Brazil), hard: Ana Sofia Sanchez vs Carolyn Ansari — Ana Sofia Sanchez	0.3500	won	12	$8
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Allershausen (Germany), clay: Jaron Held vs Jannik Maute — Jaron Held	0.1500	lost	14	−$2
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W50 Kursumlijska Banja (Serbia), clay: Elena Milovanovic vs Anja Stankovic — Elena Milovanovic	0.1800	lost	11	−$2
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Oviedo (Spain), clay: Sergi Perez Contri vs Pedro Rodenas — Pedro Rodenas	0.1990	lost	12	−$2
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Kursumlijska Banja 13 (Serbia), clay: Andrea Motta vs Antoni Fabre — Antoni Fabre	0.1300	lost	11	−$1
Augsburg: Benito Sanchez Martinez vs Facundo Mena — Benito Sanchez Martinez	0.1700	lost	18	−$3
Augsburg: Benito Sanchez Martinez vs Facundo Mena — Facundo Mena	0.4500	won	11	$6
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Oviedo (Spain), clay: Alexander Ritschard vs Ivan Gakhov — Ivan Gakhov	0.1200	lost	10	−$1
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Oldenzaal (Netherlands), clay: Pieter De Lange vs Eric Vanshelboim — Pieter De Lange	0.2600	lost	10	−$3
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W50 Kursumlijska Banja (Serbia), clay: Selena Janicijevic vs Rositsa Dencheva — Selena Janicijevic	0.2800	lost	11	−$3
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Bucharest 3 (Romania), clay: Robert Guna vs Vlad Cristian Breazu — Robert Guna	0.2900	lost	14	−$4
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W15 Tianjin 4 (China), hard: Jiangxue Han vs Eunhye 2000 Lee — Eunhye 2000 Lee	0.1700	lost	12	−$2
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W35 Verbier 2 (Switzerland), clay: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Valeriya Strakhova — Anastasija Cvetkovic	0.3700	won	14	$9
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Oldenzaal (Netherlands), clay: Lorenzo Angelini vs Daniel Verbeek — Daniel Verbeek	0.9470	won	10	$1
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W35 Verbier 2 (Switzerland), clay: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Valeriya Strakhova — Valeriya Strakhova	0.1306	lost	12	−$2
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W15 Hurghada 6 (Egypt), hard: Kateryna Diatlova vs Yasmin Ezzat — Yasmin Ezzat	0.1300	lost	12	−$2
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Poznan (Poland), clay: Niklas Guttau vs Michael Savano — Niklas Guttau	0.5400	lost	10	−$5
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W15 Hurghada 6 (Egypt), hard: Dune Vaissaud vs Bosman Coco — Bosman Coco	0.4400	lost	10	−$5
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Hurghada 6 (Egypt), hard: Dmitry Bessonov vs Aleksandre Bakshi — Dmitry Bessonov	0.4600	lost	10	−$5
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Maanshan 8 (China), hard: Tianhui Zhang vs Lingxi Zhao — Tianhui Zhang	0.5500	won	10	$5
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Maanshan 8 (China), hard: Enzo Aguiard vs Yusuke Takahashi — Yusuke Takahashi	0.1600	lost	10	−$2
Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens — Elise Mertens	0.8600	won	10	$1
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Taipei 2 (Taiwan), hard: Hyeon Chung vs Kuan Shou Chen — Hyeon Chung	0.1900	lost	11	−$2
Winston-Salem Open: Fabian Marozsan vs James Duckworth — Fabian Marozsan	0.5200	lost	10	−$5
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants — Arizona Diamondbacks	0.5400	lost	10	−$5
Monterrey Open: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry — Clara Tauson	0.5700	lost	10	−$6
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Maanshan 8 (China), hard: Joshua Charlton vs Rigele Te — Joshua Charlton	0.2200	lost	10	−$2
Monterrey Open: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry — Diane Parry	0.6800	won	10	$3
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants	0.5800	won	10	$4
US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Federico Cina — Yunchaokete Bu	0.5400	lost	11	−$6
US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Federico Cina — Federico Cina	0.4300	won	10	$6
US Open, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Colton Smith — Colton Smith	0.6500	lost	10	−$7
US Open, Qualification WTA: Tamara Zidansek vs Bianca Andreescu — Tamara Zidansek	0.9200	won	4	$0
US Open, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Christopher O'Connell — Christopher OConnell	0.0100	lost	618	−$6
US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken — Vilius Gaubas	0.6400	lost	10	−$7
US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken — Harry Wendelken	0.3200	won	12	$8
US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz — Lloyd Harris	0.5500	won	10	$5
US Open, Qualification ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Francesco Passaro — Francesco Passaro	0.4700	won	10	$6
US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Nishesh Basavareddy — Arthur Gea	0.4400	lost	12	−$5
Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Aleksandar Kovacevic — Aleksandar Kovacevic	0.3004	lost	14	−$4
Monterrey Open: Darja Vidmanova vs Nikola Bartunkova — Darja Vidmanova	0.4500	lost	10	−$5
Monterrey Open: Darja Vidmanova vs Nikola Bartunkova — Nikola Bartunkova	0.5700	won	10	$4
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees — Houston Astros	0.8200	won	10	$2
Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse — Ignacio Buse	0.4800	won	5	$3
Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse — Juan Manuel Cerundolo	0.7300	lost	11	−$8
Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals — St. Louis Cardinals	0.8390	won	10	$2
Winston-Salem Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Botic van de Zandschulp — Benjamin Bonzi	0.7800	won	10	$2
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Oldenzaal (Netherlands), clay: Brian Bozemoj vs Eric Vanshelboim — Brian Bozemoj	0.2200	lost	12	−$3

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →