Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.0905

across 8 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+17%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

14.9pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

13%

1 of 8 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	5	5%	0%	−5pp
10–25%	2	15%	50%	+35pp
25–40%	1	26%	0%	−26pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$2.5K

1 open position

Largest position

100%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

−$3.5K

against $2.5K of open value

100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $3.9K across 8 positions, with $615 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? — Yes	0.2650	lost	10,813	−$2.9K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0020	lost	248,070	−$496
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.2080	won	23,042	$18.2K
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? — Yes	0.0320	lost	31,250	−$1.0K
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina? — Yes	0.0273	lost	36,646	−$1000
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina? — Yes	0.1000	lost	10,000	−$1.0K
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina? — Yes	0.0800	lost	12,500	−$1.0K
US government shutdown Saturday? — No	0.0911	lost	76,827	−$7.0K

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →