Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 44 | 5% | 5% | +0pp |
| 10–25% | 39 | 16% | 10% | −6pp |
| 25–40% | 24 | 32% | 25% | −7pp |
| 40–60% | 31 | 49% | 29% | −20pp |
| 60–75% | 25 | 67% | 60% | −7pp |
| 75–90% | 53 | 83% | 77% | −6pp |
| 90–100% | 191 | 96% | 98% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
56% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $262.0K across 407 positions, with $1.8K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? — Yes | 0.8500 | won | 150 | $23 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? — Yes | 0.6700 | won | 200 | $66 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? — Yes | 0.4700 | lost | 300 | −$141 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? — Yes | 0.2800 | lost | 500 | −$140 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.8999 | won | 2,027 | $203 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? — No | 0.7206 | lost | 9,864 | −$7.1K |
| Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price in 2026? — No | 0.2987 | lost | 494 | −$148 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.8442 | won | 918 | $143 |
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? — No | 0.7916 | lost | 16,549 | −$13.1K |
| Will 53 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee? — Yes | 0.1268 | lost | 65 | −$8 |
| Will 52 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee? — Yes | 0.4490 | lost | 5 | −$2 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027? — No | 0.2800 | lost | 7 | −$2 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027? — No | 0.4770 | lost | 34 | −$16 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — No | 0.2800 | lost | 1,786 | −$500 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? — Yes | 0.7800 | won | 1,000 | $220 |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? — Yes | 0.0652 | lost | 1,150 | −$75 |
| Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? — Yes | 0.0646 | lost | 1,243 | −$80 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes | 0.0729 | won | 273 | $253 |
| Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes | 0.2100 | lost | 110 | −$23 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.9400 | won | 2,613 | $157 |
| Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9820 | won | 566 | $10 |
| Will the US not strike another country before 2027? — Yes | 0.0058 | lost | 3,265 | −$19 |
| Will the US strike another country first? — Yes | 0.0090 | lost | 112 | −$1 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.5196 | won | 150 | $72 |
| Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0040 | lost | 500 | −$2 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0800 | lost | 100 | −$8 |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0220 | lost | 1,000 | −$22 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0690 | lost | 200 | −$14 |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.1200 | lost | 1,195 | −$143 |
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — No | 0.9100 | won | 25 | $2 |
| Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? — Yes | 0.2085 | won | 642 | $508 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? — Yes | 0.9450 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.2460 | lost | 196 | −$48 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9940 | won | 262,228 | $1.6K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9050 | won | 379,296 | $36.0K |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9878 | won | 126,628 | $1.5K |
| Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%? — No | 0.9898 | won | 40 | $0 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? — Yes | 0.0950 | lost | 1,052 | −$100 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.1853 | lost | 40,392 | −$7.5K |
| Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? — No | 0.9500 | won | 53 | $3 |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.1249 | lost | 1,471 | −$184 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.7306 | lost | 5,942 | −$4.3K |
| Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? — No | 0.9954 | won | 4,656 | $21 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No | 0.9206 | won | 47,903 | $3.8K |
| Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves? — No | 0.9618 | won | 1,049 | $40 |
| Will Elizabeth Warren vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? — No | 0.9696 | won | 2,450 | $74 |
| Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? — Yes | 0.9644 | won | 856 | $30 |
| Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026? — Yes | 0.9400 | won | 17 | $1 |
| Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026? — Yes | 0.9562 | won | 55 | $2 |
| Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? — No | 0.3373 | lost | 219 | −$74 |
| Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? — Yes | 0.1870 | lost | 1,991 | −$372 |
| Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026? — No | 0.2700 | lost | 95 | −$26 |
| Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026? — No | 0.1100 | lost | 91 | −$10 |
| Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves? — Yes | 0.1500 | lost | 31 | −$5 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — No | 0.4300 | lost | 233 | −$100 |
| Russian strike on Poland by June 30? — Yes | 0.0630 | lost | 16 | −$1 |
| Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? — Yes | 0.1500 | lost | 50 | −$8 |
| Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? — Yes | 0.0700 | lost | 100 | −$7 |
| Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? — Yes | 0.1200 | lost | 80 | −$10 |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? — Yes | 0.0600 | lost | 100 | −$6 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →