Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 2 | 0% | 0% | −0pp |
| 90–100% | 12 | 99% | 100% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $5 across 14 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9990 | won | 107 | $0 |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? — No | 0.9630 | won | 106 | $4 |
| Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9966 | won | 318 | $1 |
| Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9990 | won | 105 | $0 |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9970 | won | 109 | $0 |
| Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9970 | won | 108 | $0 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — Yes | 0.0040 | lost | 353 | −$1 |
| Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9980 | won | 109 | $0 |
| Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9980 | won | 110 | $0 |
| Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 110 | $0 |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 324 | −$1 |
| Maduro out in 2025? — No | 0.9940 | won | 104 | $1 |
| Patriots vs. Jets — Patriots | 0.9990 | won | 104 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? — No | 0.9990 | won | 105 | $0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →