Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60–75% | 1 | 72% | 100% | +28pp |
| 75–90% | 1 | 84% | 100% | +16pp |
| 90–100% | 72 | 98% | 100% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
59% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $278 across 74 positions, with $5 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lionel Messi attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9915 | won | 86 | $1 |
| Will Diogo Dalot attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9600 | won | 39 | $2 |
| Will Luan Santana attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9275 | won | 44 | $3 |
| Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.7200 | won | 56 | $16 |
| Will Rio Ferdinand attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9500 | won | 42 | $2 |
| Will Nininho Vaz Maia attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9105 | won | 44 | $4 |
| Will Jorge Jesus attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9400 | won | 43 | $3 |
| Will m0NESY attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9790 | won | 41 | $1 |
| Will Joao Felix attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9595 | won | 42 | $2 |
| Will Drake attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9860 | won | 41 | $1 |
| Will Gareth Bale attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9600 | won | 42 | $2 |
| Will Karim Benzema attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9670 | won | 41 | $1 |
| Will Luka Modric attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9480 | won | 42 | $2 |
| Will Giorgio Chiellini attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9600 | won | 42 | $2 |
| Will Leonardo Bonucci attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9591 | won | 42 | $2 |
| Will Paulo Dybala attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9320 | won | 43 | $3 |
| Will Wayne Rooney attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9870 | won | 41 | $1 |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9849 | won | 41 | $1 |
| Will Ricardo Quaresma attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9100 | won | 44 | $4 |
| Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9000 | won | 45 | $4 |
| Will Jose Mourinho attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9660 | won | 42 | $1 |
| Will Casemiro attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9400 | won | 43 | $3 |
| Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.8428 | won | 48 | $7 |
| Will Dana White attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9880 | won | 41 | $0 |
| Will Sergio Ramos attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9200 | won | 44 | $3 |
| Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9950 | won | 40 | $0 |
| Will Piers Morgan attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — No | 0.9461 | won | 43 | $2 |
| Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? — Yes | 0.9522 | won | 244 | $12 |
| Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — No | 0.9980 | won | 2,400 | $5 |
| Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 219 | $0 |
| Will Jerry Demings be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? — No | 0.9950 | won | 12 | $0 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 17? — No | 0.9705 | won | 205 | $6 |
| Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-08-16? — Yes | 0.9661 | won | 1,839 | $62 |
| Spread: Club Tijuana (-1.5) — CF Cruz Azul | 0.9600 | won | 11 | $0 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 17? — No | 0.9979 | won | 972 | $2 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 17? — No | 0.9980 | won | 19 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 17? — No | 0.9990 | won | 25 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 1,028 | $1 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 15? — No | 0.9990 | won | 292 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on August 15? — No | 0.9990 | won | 168 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 14? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1,324 | $1 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 13? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 1,300 | $1 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 13? — No | 0.9900 | won | 24 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 11? — No | 0.9990 | won | 69 | $0 |
| Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? — No | 0.9980 | won | 1,657 | $3 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 10? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1,020 | $1 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 10? — No | 0.9990 | won | 62 | $0 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 7? — No | 0.9980 | won | 41 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 38°C on August 7? — No | 0.9990 | won | 21 | $0 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on August 6? — No | 0.9990 | won | 44 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C or higher on August 6? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1,037 | $1 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? — Yes | 0.9975 | won | 20,708 | $52 |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? — No | 0.9840 | won | 358 | $6 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 1? — No | 0.9990 | won | 7 | $0 |
| SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? — No | 0.9984 | won | 6,871 | $11 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 31? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 365 | $0 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on July 31? — No | 0.9990 | won | 829 | $1 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 31? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1,078 | $1 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 29 | $0 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — Yes | 0.9974 | won | 9,264 | $24 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →