Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 3 | 6% | 0% | −6pp |
| 10–25% | 3 | 15% | 0% | −15pp |
| 25–40% | 2 | 27% | 0% | −27pp |
| 40–60% | 4 | 51% | 75% | +24pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$10.2K across 12 positions, with $1.0K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? — No | 0.5750 | won | 11,019 | $4.7K |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance — Spain | 0.4050 | won | 32,529 | $19.4K |
| Norway vs. England: O/U 1.5 — Under | 0.1961 | lost | 34,982 | −$6.9K |
| Norway vs. England: O/U 0.5 — Under | 0.0525 | lost | 952 | −$50 |
| Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance — Belgium | 0.2600 | lost | 31,870 | −$8.3K |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? — No | 0.2700 | lost | 35,259 | −$9.5K |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance — Cabo Verde | 0.0700 | lost | 38,160 | −$2.7K |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? — No | 0.1209 | lost | 8,101 | −$979 |
| Spread: Spain (-1.5) — Austria | 0.5025 | lost | 7,155 | −$3.6K |
| France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance — Sweden | 0.1200 | lost | 19,000 | −$2.3K |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? — Yes | 0.5700 | won | 22 | $10 |
| Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2025? — Yes | 0.0531 | lost | 721 | −$38 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →