Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40–60% | 2 | 49% | 100% | +51pp |
| 75–90% | 1 | 75% | 100% | +25pp |
| 90–100% | 10 | 99% | 100% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $4.2K across 13 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Saunteel Jenkins win the 2025 Detroit mayoral election? — No | 0.9990 | won | 106 | $0 |
| Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? — No | 0.9870 | won | 10 | $0 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9750 | won | 6 | $0 |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? — No | 0.9940 | won | 2 | $0 |
| Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? — No | 0.7500 | won | 9 | $2 |
| Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? — No | 0.9990 | won | 106 | $0 |
| Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election? — No | 0.9960 | won | 1,990 | $8 |
| Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? — No | 0.9980 | won | 1,985 | $4 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? — Yes | 0.4840 | won | 4,102 | $2.1K |
| 2024 Balance of Power: Other — No | 0.9970 | won | 2,004 | $6 |
| Will any other Democrat Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? — No | 0.9980 | won | 2,005 | $4 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? — No | 0.4940 | won | 4,035 | $2.0K |
| Will a candidate from another party win Nevada Presidential Election? — No | 0.9980 | won | 2,000 | $4 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →