04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.2040
across 287 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+17%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
5.0pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
57%
165 of 287 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 6 | 6% | 0% | −6pp |
| 10–25% | 15 | 18% | 33% | +15pp |
| 25–40% | 31 | 32% | 45% | +13pp |
| 40–60% | 135 | 52% | 48% | −3pp |
| 60–75% | 36 | 67% | 67% | −1pp |
| 75–90% | 30 | 81% | 77% | −5pp |
| 90–100% | 34 | 95% | 100% | +5pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$12.7K
9 open positions
Largest position
21%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
4
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
$252
against $12.7K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $4.8K across 287 positions, with $1.0K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Both Teams to Score — Yes | 0.5100 | lost | 2,000 | −$1.0K |
| AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.5700 | lost | 2,000 | −$1.1K |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner — G2 | 0.3100 | lost | 437 | −$136 |
| LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Play-In — HANJIN BRION | 0.5500 | lost | 3,000 | −$1.7K |
| LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner — ThunderTalk Gaming | 0.2300 | lost | 1,000 | −$230 |
| LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner — HANJIN BRION | 0.4700 | won | 4,000 | $2.1K |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? — Over | 0.5295 | lost | 724 | −$384 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? — Over | 0.5400 | lost | 1,571 | −$848 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? — Over | 0.5100 | lost | 7 | −$3 |
| LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner — EDward Gaming | 0.3800 | lost | 2,085 | −$792 |
| LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals — EDward Gaming | 0.2600 | lost | 2,500 | −$650 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? — Under | 0.5196 | lost | 200 | −$104 |
| LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner — BNK FEARX | 0.4866 | lost | 1,500 | −$730 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? — Under | 0.4800 | lost | 1,000 | −$480 |
| Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) — Newcastle United FC | 0.5400 | lost | 1,600 | −$864 |
| Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) — Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 0.6251 | lost | 1,408 | −$880 |
| LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs — Eintracht Spandau | 0.4699 | lost | 617 | −$290 |
| LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Kaufland Hangry Knights - Game 1 Winner — Kaufland Hangry Knights | 0.2543 | won | 1,020 | $761 |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 4 Winner — HANJIN BRION | 0.4000 | lost | 94 | −$38 |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner — HANJIN BRION | 0.2876 | won | 1,337 | $952 |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner — KT Rolster | 0.2000 | lost | 1,000 | −$200 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? — Under | 0.5500 | won | 173 | $78 |
| Game Handicap: KT (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5) — HANJIN BRION | 0.5600 | won | 3,000 | $1.3K |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Play-In — HANJIN BRION | 0.2100 | lost | 594 | −$125 |
| Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 26? — Yes | 0.8700 | won | 200 | $26 |
| LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 4 Winner — BNK FearX Youth | 0.5000 | lost | 1,000 | −$500 |
| Game Handicap: FOX.Y (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (+1.5) — BNK FearX Youth | 0.5000 | lost | 1,091 | −$546 |
| LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season — Fnatic | 0.5300 | lost | 974 | −$516 |
| LoL: Shifters vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season — Karmine Corp | 0.7600 | won | 7 | $2 |
| LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner — Nongshim Red Force | 0.4100 | won | 1,000 | $590 |
| LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group — BNK FEARX | 0.7700 | lost | 546 | −$420 |
| LoL: EDward Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner — EDward Gaming | 0.3300 | won | 264 | $177 |
| LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend — LGD Gaming | 0.5198 | won | 605 | $291 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? — Over | 0.4000 | won | 6 | $4 |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group — Dplus KIA | 0.3767 | won | 3,000 | $1.9K |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner — Dplus KIA | 0.4200 | won | 3,000 | $1.7K |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend — Top Esports | 0.5400 | lost | 1,001 | −$541 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? — Under | 0.5400 | lost | 2,000 | −$1.1K |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22? — Yes | 0.6600 | won | 540 | $184 |
| LoL: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season — Team Vitality | 0.5500 | won | 352 | $158 |
| Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-08-21? — No | 0.5500 | lost | 1,000 | −$550 |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group — KT Rolster | 0.2700 | lost | 2,000 | −$540 |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner — Anyones Legend | 0.5500 | lost | 35 | −$19 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? — Under | 0.5300 | won | 1,000 | $470 |
| LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend — EDward Gaming | 0.4229 | won | 1,217 | $702 |
| Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-08-20? — No | 0.5400 | won | 1,000 | $460 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? — Over | 0.4700 | lost | 200 | −$94 |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner — JD Gaming | 0.7500 | won | 2,000 | $500 |
| LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs MVK Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs — MVK Esports | 0.4100 | lost | 691 | −$283 |
| LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner — Kiwoom DRX Challengers | 0.2852 | lost | 1,085 | −$309 |
| LoL: LGD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend — LGD Gaming | 0.1900 | lost | 300 | −$57 |
| Celtic FC vs. LASK Linz: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.5800 | won | 2,000 | $840 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? — Under | 0.5400 | won | 90 | $41 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? — Under | 0.3800 | won | 10 | $6 |
| Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Team to Advance — Fenerbahçe SK | 0.5000 | won | 6 | $3 |
| LoL: Solary vs TLN Pirates - Game 2 Winner — TLN Pirates | 0.5900 | won | 2,000 | $820 |
| LoL: Solary vs TLN Pirates - Game 2 Winner — Solary | 0.5800 | lost | 500 | −$290 |
| LoL: Brod n Friends vs DMG Esports (BO3) - NLC Regular Season — DMG Esports | 0.5000 | won | 269 | $135 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? — Under | 0.5600 | won | 962 | $423 |
| LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs — DN SOOPers | 0.7740 | won | 2,500 | $565 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →