Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 154 | 4% | 2% | −2pp |
| 10–25% | 115 | 17% | 16% | −1pp |
| 25–40% | 105 | 32% | 26% | −7pp |
| 40–60% | 103 | 50% | 59% | +9pp |
| 60–75% | 99 | 67% | 81% | +14pp |
| 75–90% | 131 | 83% | 91% | +8pp |
| 90–100% | 72 | 96% | 97% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $201.3K across 779 positions, with $271 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lindsey Graham be the next Senate Majority Leader? — No | 0.9971 | won | 4,513 | $13 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? — No | 0.4082 | lost | 3,757 | −$1.5K |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? — No | 0.5400 | lost | 1,852 | −$1000 |
| Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026? — Yes | 0.1322 | lost | 2,038 | −$269 |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? — Yes | 0.1474 | lost | 4,202 | −$619 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? — No | 0.2165 | lost | 23,574 | −$5.1K |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? — No | 0.5210 | won | 609 | $292 |
| Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026? — No | 0.9143 | won | 2,680 | $230 |
| Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026? — Yes | 0.0274 | lost | 2,721 | −$75 |
| Will the US strike 5 countries in 2026? — No | 0.9920 | won | 1,331 | $11 |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? — Yes | 0.4420 | won | 226 | $126 |
| Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026? — Yes | 0.1514 | lost | 1,131 | −$171 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.3632 | lost | 5,507 | −$2.0K |
| Will the US strike Iran next? — Yes | 0.1383 | lost | 1,084 | −$150 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9614 | won | 12,450 | $480 |
| Will the US strike Cuba next? — Yes | 0.0107 | lost | 2,336 | −$25 |
| Will the US strike another country first? — No | 0.9860 | won | 1,917 | $27 |
| Will the US strike Yemen next? — No | 0.9795 | won | 368 | $8 |
| Will the US strike Iraq next? — No | 0.9794 | won | 337 | $7 |
| Will the US strike Cuba next? — No | 0.9851 | won | 771 | $11 |
| Will the US strike Nigeria next? — No | 0.9791 | won | 225 | $5 |
| Will the US strike Colombia next? — No | 0.9803 | won | 102 | $2 |
| Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? — Yes | 0.0029 | lost | 7,005 | −$20 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? — Yes | 0.1809 | won | 2,765 | $2.3K |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.9359 | won | 1,913 | $123 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0376 | lost | 9,047 | −$340 |
| Will the US strike Syria next? — Yes | 0.0137 | lost | 1,107 | −$15 |
| Will the US strike Iran next? — Yes | 0.0232 | lost | 943 | −$22 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.5625 | won | 8,352 | $3.7K |
| Will the US strike Iran next? — No | 0.9538 | won | 564 | $26 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? — No | 0.4141 | lost | 2,415 | −$1000 |
| Will the US strike Iraq next? — Yes | 0.0098 | lost | 2,041 | −$20 |
| Will the US strike another country first? — Yes | 0.0031 | lost | 959 | −$3 |
| Will the US strike Nigeria next? — Yes | 0.0076 | lost | 1,320 | −$10 |
| Will the US strike another country first? — No | 0.9743 | won | 770 | $20 |
| Will the US strike 5 countries in 2026? — Yes | 0.1649 | lost | 966 | −$159 |
| Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? — Yes | 0.0780 | lost | 272 | −$21 |
| Will the US strike 3 countries in 2026? — Yes | 0.0124 | lost | 760 | −$9 |
| Will the US strike Yemen next? — No | 0.9784 | won | 613 | $13 |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? — Yes | 0.6205 | won | 202 | $77 |
| Will the US strike Colombia next? — No | 0.9812 | won | 571 | $11 |
| Will the US strike Cuba next? — No | 0.9900 | won | 101 | $1 |
| Will the US strike Iraq next? — No | 0.9579 | won | 125 | $5 |
| Will the US strike Mexico next? — No | 0.9792 | won | 562 | $12 |
| Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms? — No | 0.3434 | lost | 2,741 | −$941 |
| Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms? — Yes | 0.7732 | won | 7,723 | $1.8K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? — No | 0.0896 | lost | 3,793 | −$340 |
| Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? — Yes | 0.3781 | won | 16,928 | $10.5K |
| Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? — No | 0.5309 | lost | 1,408 | −$747 |
| Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? — No | 0.9400 | won | 340 | $20 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping by September 30, 2026? — No | 0.1983 | lost | 187 | −$37 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by August 31? — No | 0.7917 | lost | 76 | −$60 |
| Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by fire? — No | 0.9577 | won | 628 | $27 |
| Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by a projectile? — Yes | 0.0604 | lost | 32 | −$2 |
| Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by a projectile? — No | 0.9505 | won | 316 | $16 |
| Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by a cactus? — No | 0.9978 | won | 501 | $1 |
| Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by drowning? — No | 0.9900 | won | 424 | $4 |
| Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by the void? — No | 0.9100 | won | 111 | $10 |
| Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by suffocation? — No | 0.9842 | won | 102 | $2 |
| Will Kai or Speed die to a Warden? — No | 0.9400 | won | 64 | $4 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →