Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1397

across 382 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+43%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

2.0pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

56%

215 of 382 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	43	5%	2%	−2pp
10–25%	45	17%	18%	+1pp
25–40%	53	33%	36%	+3pp
40–60%	60	51%	50%	−1pp
60–75%	40	68%	73%	+5pp
75–90%	69	82%	83%	+0pp
90–100%	72	95%	99%	+3pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

0 open positions

Largest position

n/a

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

n/a

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

against $0 of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$15.6K across 382 positions, with $42 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Monterrey Open: Diane Parry vs Ann Li — Ann Li	0.2696	lost	1,484	−$400
Monterrey Open: Diane Parry vs Ann Li — Diane Parry	0.6600	won	1,515	$515
Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — Arthur Fery	0.9600	won	427	$17
Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — James Duckworth	0.0616	lost	12,905	−$795
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Poznan (Poland), clay: Campana Lee Gerard vs Filip Pieczonka — Filip Pieczonka	0.5600	won	27	$12
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Monastir 28 (Tunisia), hard: Louis Larue vs Toufik Sahtali — Louis Larue	0.4300	lost	35	−$15
Kingston 2: Andrew Fenty vs Luis Guto Miguel — Luis Guto Miguel	0.9282	won	1,472	$106
Kingston 2: Andrew Fenty vs Luis Guto Miguel — Andrew Fenty	0.0224	lost	8,089	−$181
Philadelphia: Fiona Crawley vs Julia Grabher — Julia Grabher	0.9260	won	221	$16
Philadelphia: Fiona Crawley vs Julia Grabher — Fiona Crawley	0.4950	lost	808	−$400
US Open, Qualification WTA: Yue Yuan vs Mary Stoiana — Yue Yuan	0.2900	lost	282	−$82
US Open, Qualification WTA: Tamara Zidansek vs Bianca Andreescu — Tamara Zidansek	0.8518	won	3,439	$510
US Open, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Christopher O'Connell — Zsombor Piros	0.7348	won	6,299	$1.7K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Christopher O'Connell — Christopher OConnell	0.5665	lost	1,762	−$998
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W35 Barueri (Brazil), hard: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Victoria Luiza Barros — Victoria Luiza Barros	0.3110	won	395	$272
Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse — Juan Manuel Cerundolo	0.5695	lost	467	−$266
Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse — Ignacio Buse	0.6300	won	35	$13
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W35 Barueri (Brazil), hard: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Victoria Luiza Barros — Martina Capurro Taborda	0.4054	lost	28	−$11
Monterrey Open: Alycia Parks vs Ann Li — Ann Li	0.9300	won	222	$16
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W50 Oldenzaal (Netherlands), clay: Beatrise Zeltina vs Britt Du Pree — Beatrise Zeltina	0.2931	lost	2,222	−$651
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W50 Oldenzaal (Netherlands), clay: Beatrise Zeltina vs Britt Du Pree — Britt Du Pree	0.4100	won	488	$288
US Open, Qualification WTA: Elvina Kalieva vs Sofia Costoulas — Sofia Costoulas	0.2700	lost	1,431	−$386
US Open, Qualification ATP: Federico Cina vs Hugo Dellien — Hugo Dellien	0.0988	lost	1,253	−$124
Philadelphia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Capucine Jauffret — Capucine Jauffret	0.5913	lost	13,523	−$8.0K
Philadelphia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Capucine Jauffret — Oksana Selekhmeteva	0.4100	won	9	$5
US Open, Qualification WTA: Katie Swan vs Mary Stoiana — Mary Stoiana	0.6610	won	1,084	$367
US Open, Qualification WTA: Katie Swan vs Mary Stoiana — Katie Swan	0.4300	lost	1,015	−$436
US Open, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Jack Pinnington Jones — Jack Pinnington Jones	0.0300	lost	100	−$3
US Open, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Jack Pinnington Jones — Otto Virtanen	0.8600	won	13	$2
US Open, Qualification WTA: Despina Papamichail vs Ekaterine Gorgodze — Ekaterine Gorgodze	0.7600	won	20	$5
US Open, Qualification WTA: Despina Papamichail vs Ekaterine Gorgodze — Despina Papamichail	0.1992	lost	12,063	−$2.4K
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W75 Bytom (Poland), clay: Irene Burillo Escorihuela vs Laura Hietaranta — Laura Hietaranta	0.5747	won	69	$29
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W75 Bytom (Poland), clay: Aneta Laboutkova vs Vivian Wolff — Aneta Laboutkova	0.8205	won	304	$55
US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Linda Klimovicova — Linda Klimovicova	0.0100	lost	870	−$9
Philadelphia: Lizette Cabrera vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew — Lizette Cabrera	0.0790	lost	100	−$8
US Open, Qualification ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Aziz Dougaz — Kyrian Jacquet	0.4474	lost	1,110	−$496
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W35 Trieste (Italy), clay: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Pia Lovric — Pia Lovric	0.9696	won	515	$16
Roehampton 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Oliver Bonding — Oliver Tarvet	0.7019	won	105	$31
Roehampton 2: Anton Matusevich vs Michele Ribecai — Anton Matusevich	0.2135	lost	402	−$86
US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves — Felipe Meligeni Alves	0.0109	lost	11,353	−$124
Kingston 2: Edward Winter vs Andres Andrade — Edward Winter	0.1880	lost	1,106	−$208
US Open, Qualification ATP: Spencer Johnson vs Cristian Garin — Cristian Garin	0.5063	won	703	$347
US Open, Qualification ATP: Spencer Johnson vs Cristian Garin — Spencer Johnson	0.5676	lost	348	−$197
Philadelphia: Lois Boisson vs Capucine Jauffret — Capucine Jauffret	0.9401	won	6,065	$363
US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebeka Masarova vs Iryna Shymanovich — Rebeka Masarova	0.6575	lost	14,470	−$9.5K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebeka Masarova vs Iryna Shymanovich — Iryna Shymanovich	0.3600	won	3,906	$2.5K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov — Jurij Rodionov	0.8900	won	562	$62
US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov — Kimmer Coppejans	0.1100	lost	494	−$54
Monterrey Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Darja Vidmanova — Panna Udvardy	0.0924	lost	570	−$53
Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe — Arthur Fils	0.5945	won	3,887	$1.6K
Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe — Frances Tiafoe	0.5600	lost	357	−$200
Monterrey Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Emiliana Arango — Emiliana Arango	0.5515	lost	1,269	−$700
Quebec City: Hugo Gaston vs Luca Van Assche — Luca Van Assche	0.8041	won	1,271	$249
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner — BNK FEARX	0.0099	lost	5,842	−$58
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner — HANJIN BRION	0.7705	won	2,781	$638
Kingston: Pedro Martinez vs Daniil Glinka — Pedro Martinez	0.5300	won	94	$44
Cincinnati Open: Sara Bejlek vs Madison Keys — Madison Keys	0.1100	lost	123	−$14
Cincinnati Open: Sara Bejlek vs Madison Keys — Sara Bejlek	0.1874	won	714	$580
Will FK Austria Wien vs. SC Braga end in a draw? — Yes	0.9410	won	55	$3
Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5 — Under	0.9900	won	789	$8

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →