Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 5% | 0% | −5pp |
| 10–25% | 1 | 16% | 100% | +84pp |
| 25–40% | 1 | 38% | 0% | −38pp |
| 40–60% | 1 | 48% | 0% | −48pp |
| 60–75% | 1 | 69% | 100% | +31pp |
| 90–100% | 7 | 98% | 100% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $803 across 12 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? — No | 0.9750 | won | 7,112 | $178 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? — No | 0.9740 | won | 21,807 | $567 |
| Will MrBeast say Million / Billion 15+ times during next video? — Yes | 0.9900 | won | 1,771 | $18 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? — Yes | 0.3800 | lost | 5 | −$2 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? — No | 0.9650 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? — No | 0.9960 | won | 497 | $2 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? — No | 0.0500 | lost | 640 | −$32 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday? — No | 0.1612 | won | 13 | $11 |
| Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs ARCRED (BO3) — ARCRED | 0.4802 | lost | 1,411 | −$678 |
| Will Paramount Group (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings? — No | 0.6900 | won | 1,444 | $448 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 21 at 4PM ET? — No | 0.9970 | won | 26,837 | $81 |
| Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds? — No | 0.9930 | won | 30,000 | $210 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →