04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.0111
across 226 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+49%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
1.4pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
98%
221 of 226 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 4% | 0% | −4pp |
| 10–25% | 1 | 20% | 0% | −20pp |
| 25–40% | 2 | 33% | 50% | +17pp |
| 40–60% | 6 | 48% | 67% | +19pp |
| 60–75% | 3 | 69% | 100% | +31pp |
| 75–90% | 1 | 79% | 100% | +21pp |
| 90–100% | 212 | 100% | 100% | +0pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$0
0 open positions
Largest position
n/a
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
n/a
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
$0
against $0 of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $2.6K across 226 positions, with $1 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — Arthur Fery | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse — Ignacio Buse | 0.6900 | won | 2,899 | $899 |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Pridankina — Qinwen Zheng | 0.7100 | won | 273 | $79 |
| Philadelphia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Capucine Jauffret — Oksana Selekhmeteva | 0.9987 | won | 2,049 | $3 |
| Winston-Salem Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ignacio Buse — Ignacio Buse | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Winston-Salem Open: Hugo Grenier vs Sebastian Baez — Sebastian Baez | 0.9990 | won | 13,609 | $14 |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Taro Daniel vs Andrew Johnson — Andrew Johnson | 0.9986 | won | 490 | $1 |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac — Tomas Machac | 0.2000 | lost | 100 | −$20 |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ugo Blanchet — Otto Virtanen | 0.9990 | won | 237 | $0 |
| Kingston: Pedro Martinez vs Daniil Glinka — Pedro Martinez | 0.9990 | won | 12 | $0 |
| Quebec City: Jesper de Jong vs Hugo Gaston — Hugo Gaston | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime — Frances Tiafoe | 0.9990 | won | 115 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Jessica Pegula — Jessica Pegula | 0.9989 | won | 17,936 | $20 |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik — Thiago Agustin Tirante | 0.3400 | won | 100 | $66 |
| Quebec City: Francesco Maestrelli vs Alexei Popyrin — Alexei Popyrin | 0.9986 | won | 50 | $0 |
| Quebec City: Benjamin Bonzi vs Justin Boulais — Benjamin Bonzi | 0.7900 | won | 200 | $42 |
| Cincinnati Open: Coco Gauff vs Ann Li — Coco Gauff | 0.9990 | won | 11,056 | $11 |
| Cincinnati Open: Janice Tjen vs Mirra Andreeva — Mirra Andreeva | 0.9989 | won | 43,178 | $46 |
| Cincinnati Open: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska — Diana Shnaider | 0.9987 | won | 88 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fery vs Alex de Minaur — Alex de Minaur | 0.9960 | won | 50 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open: Magdalena Frech vs Elena Rybakina — Elena Rybakina | 0.9984 | won | 2,141 | $3 |
| Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo — Rafael Jodar | 0.6600 | won | 1,515 | $515 |
| Cincinnati Open: Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobolli — Flavio Cobolli | 0.9990 | won | 1,168 | $1 |
| Prague 2: Marek Gengel vs Juan Bautista Torres — Juan Bautista Torres | 0.9990 | won | 15 | $0 |
| UFC Fight Night: Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Lightweight, Prelims) — Chris Padilla | 0.9990 | won | 1,095 | $1 |
| Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Talia Gibson — Aryna Sabalenka | 0.9988 | won | 2,032 | $3 |
| Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? — No | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Lucrezia Stefanini — Marie Bouzkova | 0.9970 | won | 1,005 | $3 |
| Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Denis Shapovalov — Rafael Jodar | 0.9990 | won | 4,746 | $5 |
| Cincinnati Open: Elise Mertens vs Diane Parry — Diane Parry | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini — Jiri Lehecka | 0.9990 | won | 15 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Nikola Bartunkova — Sorana Cirstea | 0.9990 | won | 15 | $0 |
| Todi: Nicolas Kicker vs Marco Cecchinato — Nicolas Kicker | 0.9990 | won | 4 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open: Diana Shnaider vs Tatjana Maria — Diana Shnaider | 0.9989 | won | 12,518 | $14 |
| Cincinnati Open: Mary Stoiana vs Tereza Valentova — Tereza Valentova | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open: Xinyu Wang vs Hanne Vandewinkel — Xinyu Wang | 0.9990 | won | 164 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open: Maria Timofeeva vs Xiyu Wang — Xiyu Wang | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open: Mark Lajal vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo — Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0.9985 | won | 1,684 | $2 |
| Cincinnati Open: Titouan Droguet vs Matteo Berrettini — Matteo Berrettini | 0.9989 | won | 123 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luca Van Assche — Yannick Hanfmann | 0.9990 | won | 500 | $1 |
| Cincinnati Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Alina Charaeva — Nikola Bartunkova | 0.9984 | won | 4,777 | $7 |
| Cincinnati Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anna Bondar — Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Brownsburg: Quinn Vandecasteele vs Tristan Schoolkate — Tristan Schoolkate | 0.9990 | won | 1,602 | $2 |
| National Bank Open: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina — Iga Swiatek | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open: Mariano Navone vs Raphael Collignon — Mariano Navone | 0.9990 | won | 8 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Nadia Podoroska — Emiliana Arango | 0.9989 | won | 9,349 | $11 |
| Cincinnati Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Adrian Mannarino — Adrian Mannarino | 0.4500 | lost | 20 | −$9 |
| Cincinnati Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Magda Linette — Gabriela Ruse | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open: Simona Waltert vs Petra Marcinko — Simona Waltert | 0.9990 | won | 15 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Rebecca Sramkova — Hanne Vandewinkel | 0.9990 | won | 46 | $0 |
| Brownsburg: Dhakshineswar Suresh vs Rei Sakamoto — Rei Sakamoto | 0.9990 | won | 25 | $0 |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Ben Shelton — Ben Shelton | 0.9990 | won | 21,798 | $22 |
| Jodar vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 23.5 — Under | 0.9990 | won | 290 | $0 |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Tyler Bowers vs Leo Vithoontien — Tyler Bowers | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Brownsburg: Stefan Kozlov vs Aidan Mayo — Stefan Kozlov | 0.9989 | won | 128 | $0 |
| Brownsburg: Lloyd Harris vs Andrew Fenty — Lloyd Harris | 0.9990 | won | 18 | $0 |
| National Bank Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina — Elena Rybakina | 0.9990 | won | 43 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Kei Nishikori vs Francisco Comesana — Kei Nishikori | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Jaime Faria vs Nikoloz Basilashvili — Jaime Faria | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Leolia Jeanjean — Leolia Jeanjean | 0.9990 | won | 5 | $0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →