04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.1228
across 512 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+46%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
6.3pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
65%
331 of 512 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 53 | 5% | 2% | −3pp |
| 10–25% | 62 | 17% | 24% | +8pp |
| 25–40% | 59 | 33% | 47% | +15pp |
| 40–60% | 70 | 50% | 56% | +6pp |
| 60–75% | 55 | 67% | 80% | +13pp |
| 75–90% | 54 | 82% | 91% | +9pp |
| 90–100% | 159 | 98% | 97% | −1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$96.0K
173 open positions
Largest position
13%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
8
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
−$81.8K
against $96.0K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $419.0K across 512 positions, with $153 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US not strike another country before 2027? — No | 0.9950 | won | 66,239 | $331 |
| Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? — Yes | 0.0741 | lost | 11,737 | −$869 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? — Yes | 0.6700 | won | 1,745 | $576 |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? — No | 0.7400 | won | 2,364 | $615 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? — No | 0.7500 | won | 251 | $63 |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? — Yes | 0.4137 | lost | 22,906 | −$9.5K |
| Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? — No | 0.7567 | won | 27,659 | $6.7K |
| Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? — No | 0.9400 | won | 12,496 | $750 |
| Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? — No | 0.7150 | won | 31,762 | $9.1K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20? — Yes | 0.9850 | won | 6,578 | $99 |
| Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? — Yes | 0.9169 | won | 4,728 | $393 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 2,074 | $4 |
| Will Trump say "Communist" during Speech to the Nation? — Yes | 0.5937 | won | 739 | $300 |
| Will Trump say "China" during Speech to the Nation? — Yes | 0.8988 | won | 2,556 | $259 |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? — No | 0.9980 | won | 6,326 | $13 |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.2400 | lost | 745 | −$179 |
| Will Israel annex Syrian territory before July? — No | 0.9131 | won | 1,915 | $166 |
| U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by March 31? — Yes | 0.9400 | won | 200 | $12 |
| Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 40,040 | $40 |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? — Yes | 0.9855 | won | 1,774 | $26 |
| Clavicular unbanned from Kick by January 31? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 5,999 | $6 |
| Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? — No | 0.9990 | won | 75,202 | $75 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.3650 | won | 591 | $375 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? — No | 0.9940 | won | 19,138 | $115 |
| Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? — No | 0.9970 | won | 9,665 | $29 |
| Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? — Yes | 0.9700 | won | 7 | $0 |
| Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? — Yes | 0.3125 | lost | 16,427 | −$5.1K |
| Will SZA release a new song in 2025? — Yes | 0.8853 | won | 2,900 | $333 |
| Gaza mass population relocation in 2025? — No | 0.9970 | won | 143 | $0 |
| White girlfriend who shot Black bf guilty? — No | 0.9964 | won | 189 | $1 |
| Assad leaves Russia before 2026? — No | 0.8379 | won | 5,040 | $817 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? — Yes | 0.2151 | lost | 15,138 | −$3.3K |
| U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? — Yes | 0.5500 | won | 1,998 | $899 |
| Israel confirms it has nuclear weapons in 2025? — No | 0.9870 | won | 340 | $4 |
| Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 1,600 | $6 |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 30 | $0 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025? — No | 0.9566 | won | 578 | $25 |
| Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? — Yes | 0.9774 | won | 70,213 | $1.6K |
| Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? — Yes | 0.9934 | won | 83,531 | $550 |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? — Yes | 0.9930 | won | 22,664 | $159 |
| Will Israel allow independent journalists into Gaza by December 31? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 1,756 | $7 |
| Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? — No | 0.9678 | won | 16,184 | $522 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? — Yes | 0.9690 | won | 2,617 | $81 |
| Prince Andrew loses Duke of York title by December 31? — No | 0.0230 | lost | 2,007 | −$46 |
| Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025? — Yes | 0.1183 | lost | 21,351 | −$2.5K |
| Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? — Yes | 0.1028 | lost | 4,256 | −$438 |
| Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9960 | won | 100,000 | $400 |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9950 | won | 100,000 | $500 |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9960 | won | 25,000 | $100 |
| Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9960 | won | 25,000 | $100 |
| Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9960 | won | 25,000 | $100 |
| Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9960 | won | 25,000 | $100 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? — No | 0.6484 | won | 121,517 | $42.7K |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? — No | 0.8920 | won | 8,433 | $911 |
| Will no leader be out in 2025? — Yes | 0.0156 | lost | 24,244 | −$378 |
| South Park: JD Vance becomes President? — No | 0.8500 | won | 160 | $24 |
| Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? — Yes | 0.0463 | lost | 3,007 | −$139 |
| Will France recognize Palestine in 2025? — No | 0.0888 | lost | 13,615 | −$1.2K |
| Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic before September? — No | 0.9987 | won | 1,413 | $2 |
| Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? — Yes | 0.2700 | lost | 25 | −$7 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →