Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 8 | 4% | 0% | −4pp |
| 10–25% | 5 | 16% | 40% | +24pp |
| 25–40% | 3 | 34% | 33% | −0pp |
| 40–60% | 1 | 48% | 0% | −48pp |
| 60–75% | 2 | 64% | 100% | +36pp |
| 75–90% | 2 | 80% | 100% | +20pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
69% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$2.9K across 21 positions, with $104 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — Yes | 0.1002 | lost | 12,289 | −$1.2K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0654 | lost | 30,224 | −$2.0K |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0220 | lost | 15,000 | −$330 |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0200 | lost | 15,000 | −$300 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0620 | lost | 12 | −$1 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET — Down | 0.2700 | won | 19 | $14 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0424 | lost | 3,108 | −$132 |
| Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the March Meeting? — Yes | 0.4813 | lost | 170 | −$82 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? — Yes | 0.3695 | lost | 677 | −$250 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? — Yes | 0.6600 | won | 189 | $64 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? — Yes | 0.1992 | won | 64 | $51 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? — No | 0.8400 | won | 380 | $61 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? — Yes | 0.6150 | won | 650 | $250 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — Yes | 0.0861 | lost | 2,324 | −$200 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 2,353 | −$7 |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? — Yes | 0.1500 | won | 2,168 | $1.8K |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? — No | 0.7600 | won | 268 | $64 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? — Yes | 0.3749 | lost | 533 | −$200 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $107k or $109k first? — 107k | 0.0010 | lost | 5,973 | −$6 |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 million? — No | 0.1300 | lost | 1,154 | −$150 |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 million? — No | 0.2100 | lost | 1,667 | −$350 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →