Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1384

across 398 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+44%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

5.1pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

46%

182 of 398 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	88	3%	0%	−3pp
10–25%	63	17%	24%	+7pp
25–40%	40	32%	45%	+13pp
40–60%	82	50%	48%	−2pp
60–75%	32	66%	75%	+9pp
75–90%	45	82%	87%	+4pp
90–100%	48	95%	98%	+3pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$219.4K

28 open positions

Largest position

14%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$87.0K

against $219.4K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $644.7K across 398 positions, with $2.3K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? — Yes	0.3574	won	4,071	$2.6K
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? — Yes	0.9352	won	1,615	$105
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? — No	0.2400	lost	2,995	−$719
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.9672	won	231,198	$7.6K
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — No	0.1889	lost	5,194	−$981
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes	0.6686	won	22,637	$7.5K
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? — Yes	0.0060	lost	24,950	−$150
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? — Yes	0.1153	won	228,127	$201.8K
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? — Yes	0.0726	lost	80,586	−$5.8K
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0016	lost	308,457	−$503
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0239	lost	272,916	−$6.5K
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? — Yes	0.1292	lost	172,995	−$22.3K
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0010	lost	92,135	−$92
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0020	lost	49,034	−$98
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — No	0.6233	lost	40,290	−$25.1K
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? — No	0.9860	won	30,000	$420
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? — No	0.7300	won	76	$21
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? — No	0.8338	won	48,200	$8.0K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? — Yes	0.1700	lost	5,341	−$908
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? — No	0.0144	lost	23,419	−$337
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? — No	0.3095	lost	6,834	−$2.1K
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? — Yes	0.0633	lost	23,734	−$1.5K
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? — Yes	0.2493	lost	12,426	−$3.1K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? — No	0.4887	lost	49,919	−$24.4K
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? — No	0.7100	won	25,347	$7.4K
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? — Yes	0.2513	lost	8,190	−$2.1K
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? — Yes	0.8810	won	17,111	$2.0K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.7800	won	20,000	$4.4K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? — Yes	0.6800	won	22,188	$7.1K
Israel closes its airspace by July 24? — No	0.8693	won	2,389	$312
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? — No	0.9422	won	22,528	$1.3K
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23? — No	0.5000	won	1,272	$636
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call? — Yes	0.1708	lost	117	−$20
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0260	lost	100,000	−$2.6K
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance — Argentina	0.4100	lost	25,000	−$10.3K
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? — Yes	0.1334	lost	17,765	−$2.4K
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15? — No	0.4757	won	1,588	$833
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? — Yes	0.0170	lost	50	−$1
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance — Norway	0.3200	lost	1,087	−$348
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? — No	0.9816	won	94,182	$1.7K
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance — Norway	0.3000	won	12,500	$8.8K
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? — No	0.4600	won	12,500	$6.8K
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4? — No	0.6183	won	9,499	$3.6K
Will Jason Kelce be a groomsman at Taylor Swift's wedding? — No	0.0866	lost	13,928	−$1.2K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — No	0.2765	won	10,093	$7.3K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? — Yes	0.2001	lost	21,187	−$4.2K
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? — Yes	0.4324	lost	10,349	−$4.5K
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? — Yes	0.5866	won	29,288	$12.1K
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? — Yes	0.4600	won	25,020	$13.5K
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? — No	0.0900	lost	3,130	−$282
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? — Yes	0.0347	lost	33,836	−$1.2K
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — Yes	0.1731	lost	56,790	−$9.8K
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? — Yes	0.0285	lost	9,977	−$285
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? — Yes	0.3467	lost	4,315	−$1.5K
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? — Yes	0.4248	lost	220	−$93
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — No	0.0010	lost	627,875	−$628
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — Yes	0.2418	won	21,425	$16.2K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — Yes	0.1485	lost	370,239	−$55.0K
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? — Yes	0.1500	lost	24	−$4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? — Yes	0.2400	won	10,000	$7.6K

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →