Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–25% | 1 | 11% | 0% | −11pp |
| 75–90% | 1 | 90% | 100% | +10pp |
| 90–100% | 26 | 98% | 100% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $108 across 28 positions, with $3 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9960 | won | 1,282 | $5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET — Up | 0.1119 | lost | 447 | −$50 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9970 | won | 1,379 | $4 |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9940 | won | 1,377 | $8 |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9930 | won | 807 | $6 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9890 | won | 562 | $6 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9939 | won | 1,357 | $8 |
| Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? — Yes | 0.9760 | won | 306 | $7 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? — No | 0.9850 | won | 355 | $5 |
| Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? — Yes | 0.9950 | won | 161 | $1 |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? — Yes | 0.9930 | won | 151 | $1 |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? — No | 0.9730 | won | 182 | $5 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9930 | won | 302 | $2 |
| Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? — Yes | 0.9650 | won | 206 | $7 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9860 | won | 183 | $3 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9830 | won | 143 | $2 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? — No | 0.9910 | won | 112 | $1 |
| US military action against Iran before July? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 188 | $0 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9200 | won | 145 | $12 |
| Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? — Yes | 0.9000 | won | 218 | $22 |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? — Yes | 0.9860 | won | 241 | $3 |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? — No | 0.9784 | won | 660 | $14 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? — No | 0.9746 | won | 376 | $10 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? — No | 0.9800 | won | 367 | $7 |
| Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? — Yes | 0.9728 | won | 377 | $10 |
| Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? — Yes | 0.9580 | won | 162 | $7 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? — No | 0.9990 | won | 124 | $0 |
| Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22? — Yes | 0.9940 | won | 124 | $1 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →