Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1903

across 1491 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+24%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

3.7pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

51%

761 of 1491 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	57	6%	2%	−5pp
10–25%	133	17%	8%	−10pp
25–40%	217	33%	29%	−4pp
40–60%	616	50%	51%	+2pp
60–75%	256	67%	71%	+5pp
75–90%	161	82%	85%	+3pp
90–100%	51	93%	100%	+7pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$38.9K

130 open positions

Largest position

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$7.2K

against $38.9K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $213.8K across 1491 positions, with $1.3K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics — Athletics	0.1338	lost	6,203	−$830
Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics — Baltimore Orioles	0.6491	won	17,278	$6.1K
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels — Philadelphia Phillies	0.1635	won	13,199	$11.0K
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels — Los Angeles Angels	0.8401	lost	11,715	−$9.8K
Monterrey Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Elise Mertens — Elise Mertens	0.7377	won	9,299	$2.4K
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants — Arizona Diamondbacks	0.5413	won	26,999	$12.4K
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants	0.4881	lost	7,138	−$3.5K
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins — Minnesota Twins	0.4076	lost	20,786	−$8.5K
Monterrey Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Elise Mertens — Nikola Bartunkova	0.7068	lost	1,110	−$784
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins — Chicago White Sox	0.6302	won	15,995	$5.9K
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves — Colorado Rockies	0.1312	lost	18,969	−$2.5K
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves — Atlanta Braves	0.8619	won	11,333	$1.6K
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians — Cleveland Guardians	0.3896	lost	8,712	−$3.4K
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets — New York Mets	0.4876	lost	466	−$227
Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Milwaukee Brewers	0.6548	won	10,964	$3.8K
Monterrey Open: Diane Parry vs Ann Li — Diane Parry	0.6073	won	883	$347
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Seattle Mariners	0.1962	lost	10,784	−$2.1K
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers	0.2598	lost	31,176	−$8.1K
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigers — Los Angeles Dodgers	0.8446	won	24,654	$3.8K
Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Luis Guto Miguel — Aidan Mayo	0.8206	won	2,027	$364
Monterrey Open: Diane Parry vs Ann Li — Ann Li	0.5201	lost	4,184	−$2.2K
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets — Houston Astros	0.7894	won	14,796	$3.1K
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians — Kansas City Royals	0.5642	won	11,365	$5.0K
Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Texas Rangers	0.1767	lost	11,131	−$2.0K
Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Luis Guto Miguel — Luis Guto Miguel	0.2400	lost	11	−$3
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees — New York Yankees	0.7300	won	1,779	$480
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees — Boston Red Sox	0.3372	lost	121	−$41
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays	0.6841	won	13,341	$4.2K
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals — Miami Marlins	0.4273	lost	9,939	−$4.2K
San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays — San Diego Padres	0.1931	lost	5,386	−$1.0K
San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays — Tampa Bay Rays	0.8840	won	2,713	$315
Philadelphia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Katie Volynets — Katie Volynets	0.7866	won	22,080	$4.7K
Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — Arthur Fery	0.8298	won	962	$164
Philadelphia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Katie Volynets — Oksana Selekhmeteva	0.0663	lost	320	−$21
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals	0.5400	won	50	$23
Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — James Duckworth	0.4300	lost	10	−$4
Selekhmeteva vs. Volynets: Match O/U 22.5 — Under	0.5600	won	0	$0
Winston-Salem Open: Ignacio Buse vs Benjamin Bonzi — Ignacio Buse	0.6293	won	59,738	$22.1K
Kingston 2: Rodrigo Pacheco vs Andres Andrade — Andres Andrade	0.6710	won	12,763	$4.2K
Winston-Salem Open: Ignacio Buse vs Benjamin Bonzi — Benjamin Bonzi	0.3969	lost	16,357	−$6.5K
Philadelphia: Tereza Valentova vs Julia Grabher — Tereza Valentova	0.9183	won	15,326	$1.3K
Pacheco vs. Andrade: Match O/U 21.5 — Over	0.5300	won	5	$2
Pacheco vs. Andrade: Match O/U 21.5 — Under	0.4800	lost	5	−$2
Philadelphia: Tereza Valentova vs Julia Grabher — Julia Grabher	0.0700	lost	10	−$1
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs — Cincinnati Reds	0.6795	won	2,224	$713
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs — Chicago Cubs	0.3051	lost	5,249	−$1.6K
Augsburg: Cezar Cretu vs Sandro Kopp — Cezar Cretu	0.8103	won	10,532	$2.0K
Augsburg: Cezar Cretu vs Sandro Kopp — Sandro Kopp	0.5236	lost	749	−$392
Augsburg: Benito Sanchez Martinez vs Facundo Mena — Benito Sanchez Martinez	0.7844	lost	3,973	−$3.1K
Rakuten Monkeys vs. Uni-President Lions — Uni-President Lions	0.4600	won	41	$22
Wei Chuan Dragons vs. TSG Hawks — TSG Hawks	0.4800	won	39	$20
Augsburg: Benito Sanchez Martinez vs Facundo Mena — Facundo Mena	0.4458	won	665	$369
Wei Chuan Dragons vs. TSG Hawks — Wei Chuan Dragons	0.5100	lost	41	−$21
Saitama Seibu Lions vs. Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles — Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles	0.4461	lost	780	−$348
Hanshin Tigers vs. Yomiuri Giants — Yomiuri Giants	0.3986	lost	2,371	−$945
Winston-Salem Open: Fabian Marozsan vs James Duckworth — Fabian Marozsan	0.7436	lost	416	−$309
Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens — Elise Mertens	0.8700	won	8,232	$1.1K
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants — Arizona Diamondbacks	0.3882	lost	467	−$181
Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens — Yulia Starodubtseva	0.1900	lost	10	−$2
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants	0.4308	won	29,888	$17.0K

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →