Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1182

across 14 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+3%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

12.0pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

14%

2 of 14 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	8	4%	0%	−4pp
10–25%	2	17%	50%	+33pp
25–40%	3	31%	33%	+3pp
60–75%	1	65%	0%	−65pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$3.2K

4 open positions

Largest position

66%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

−$2.9K

against $3.2K of open value

66% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$1.1K across 14 positions, with $264 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes	0.0358	lost	2,796	−$100
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? — Yes	0.0600	lost	1,667	−$100
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? — No	0.0478	lost	7,326	−$350
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? — Yes	0.1700	won	588	$488
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? — Yes	0.0118	lost	24,151	−$285
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? — Yes	0.1700	lost	353	−$60
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? — Yes	0.0260	lost	1,541	−$40
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? — Yes	0.2700	lost	370	−$100
EU sanctions on Iran by September 30? — No	0.6500	lost	100	−$65
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31? — Yes	0.2500	lost	400	−$100
50% India tariff in effect by August 27? — Yes	0.3970	won	252	$152
Will DeepSeek be #1 model before July? — Yes	0.0812	lost	4,924	−$400
Will DeepSeek be #1 model before April? — Yes	0.0136	lost	3,667	−$50
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? — Yes	0.0168	lost	5,940	−$100

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →